We discuss our mid-year FX outlook in a rare long-format presentation. Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy Ikue Saito, Japan Markets Research Ben Jarman, Global Economics, Rates &amp; FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Octavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy Anezka Christovova, Head of EMEA EM Local Markets Strategy Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy Kunj Padh, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 18 June 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5329700-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global FX: Bullish Beta, Bullish Dollar

At Any Rate

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** At Any Rate

## Transcript

Hello and welcome to J.P. Morgan's At Any Rate podcast. I'm Meera Chandanko, head of FX Strategy at J.P. Morgan. Very pleased to bring to you this week our full format mid-year-ahead outlook roundup. So this is going to be a quick fire round, slightly longer format than usual. We're going to go around the globe, start with Asia, work our way through Europe and end with the US and Americas.

So as a background, you know, we did, you know, when we wrote our year ahead outlook, that was at the end of November last year. The theme was Bullish Beta, Bearish Dollar. The only part of that view that changed after the US-Iran conflict was the bearish dollar part where we actually had a flip in view. We turned bullish the dollar as, you know, as the conflict started.

The idea was there was a terms of trade component that was helping the dollar. And since then, US exceptionalism has been making a comeback. Beta trades, which is FXCAD, have actually continued to deliver for all the hand-wringing around the dollar view. FXCAD is a strategy that's been paying the bills. You know, returns are pretty substantive year to date, particularly if you're looking at real yield signals. And as we go into the second half of the year, the theme around bullish beta is still unchanged.

You know, that continues to be a core part of the theme. But the difference here is instead of being bullish beta, bearish dollar, we are now bullish beta and bullish the dollar, if that is possible. The reason to be bullish the dollar is US exceptionalism. We've unpacked that multiple times on this platform before. And it's basically the exceptionalism story, which is showing up in multiple dimensions, including yield supremacy. The dollar already yields more than half of the currencies globally.

Warsh was orthodox, which he thought was an outcome that would be hawkish. But I think he was even in the underlying commentary more hawkish than he had anticipated, given the emphasis on price stability. And then certainly the dots were hawkish as well. So we're going to unpack that. But as we've written and discussed in the last podcast, the typical playbook for this is for the dollar to strengthen in the six months or so going into the first Fed hike.

So, you know, still thinking this is potentially a bounded move unless, you know, and it does require sort of to be corroborated by the data. So it's not going to be a straight line. So it is binary. It is data dependent. But for what it's worth, our euro dollar downside target, if you can talk about that, is already out of consensus. Bearish at 113 on the downside. We do see that sort of shifting lower, you know, towards the 112 area.

110 could also come into play depending on the timing and the intensity of that hikes. So watch this space. But in a nutshell, we are, you know, definitely constructive. The dollar versus low yielders like the euro. So G10 in particular is chock full of ...

Global FX: Bullish Beta, Bullish Dollar

Transcript

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Global FX: Bullish Beta, Bullish Dollar

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.