Tuesday 29th September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As crude oil holds above $105 a barrel and US 10-year Treasury yields surge to 5.24%, markets are grappling with how much further central banks can push policy rates to restrain persistent inflation. On today’s podcast Phil talks with NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia&#x27;s rate decision. Sally notes that while US growth resilience and structural Capex demand are driving global yields higher, Australia’s cooling PMIs and softening business survey data suggest the RBA is operating in a vastly different cyclical environment than its peers. The pair also examine Nvidia’s historic $150 billion share buyback, the US-China tariff cuts and key global data reads including US JOLTS and Canadian GDP. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rates, bonds and oil – how high can they go

NAB Morning Call

[SPEAKER_00] Well it's another session with higher oil, higher bond yields and heightened expectations for central bank hikes. Just how far will this go? Everyone expects the RBA is going to lift rates today but if oil keeps rising and bond yields keep rising how far will the RBA go? In short, when will all this end? It's Tuesday, it's the 29th of August 2026, it's the Morning Call from NAB. Good morning.

[SPEAKER_00] Well bond yields are quite a bit high today, up 8 basis points for 10-year Treasuries up to 5.24%. UK gilts are up 6 basis points as well. 10 years are up 8 in France and Italy. Aussie 10 years were up 5 basis points yesterday to 5.41% but add another 4 basis points overnight on futures to those as well.

[SPEAKER_00] And oil is up 0.9% for Brent, it's up over 105 a barrel, a marginal move up for WTI. Gold and silver well down today, 3.5% off spot gold, silver is down 5% today. The US dollar is slightly stronger, up almost 0.2% this morning. The Aussie is pretty flat, it's stuck at 70.2 US cents but a 0.4% fall in the Swiss franc.

[SPEAKER_00] That's really the only significant move in currencies and shares are down. The NASDAQ has lost 0.7%, half a percent off the S&P but fairly marginal falls in Europe. IT shares in the US have lost half a percent but Meta is down 4% but NVIDIA managed to climb 2% but it isn't chips versus software because AMD is down 4% as well.

Rates, bonds and oil – how high can they go

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Rates, bonds and oil – how high can they go

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.