Jesse Felder: This is the Type of Setup You Look For as an Investor

Recorded on: June 29, 2026

Jesse Felder highlights a striking divergence in oil markets: physical inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have plunged to multi-decade lows while demand hits records, yet institutional investors hold the most bearish positioning ever. This contrarian setup is amplified by the AI frenzy, which has drained interest from energy—despite the sector’s strong five-year performance. Insider buying in exploration and production (E&P) companies and an absence of commercial hedging signal confidence in sustainably higher prices. Felder argues that a decade of underinvestment due to capital flowing elsewhere, first to shale, then to ESG, now to AI has constrained supply, laying the groundwork for an oil supercycle targeting $120/barrel.

Turning to gold, Felder notes that a needed correction has brought prices back toward levels suggested by real rates, with speculative froth easing. A pivot from the Federal Reserve toward rate cuts—should economic weakness emerge—could reignite a bull run. He warns that new Fed Chair Warsh’s attempt to walk back dovish policies and market handholding may be thwarted by the economy’s immense dependence on asset prices and record margin debt, which, as a share of M2, now rivals March 2000 extremes. The AI-driven equity rally is increasingly fragile. The Magnificent Seven’s once-dominant moats have eroded as they compete in overlapping fields, while free cash flows for hyperscalers have evaporated.

The emergence of open-source Chinese AI models—offering comparable performance at a tiny fraction of the cost—threatens to slash demand for expensive compute. With training still accounting for most chip spending, any pullback in frontier model development could collapse semiconductor demand just as South Korea plans massive new supply. This dispersion and leverage echo past speculative peaks. To navigate these cross-currents, Felder emphasizes broad diversification, adding real assets, energy, and precious metals to traditional portfolios. Tactically leaning into out-of-favor areas with strong fundamental stories can provide resilience as the capital cycle rotates away from the most overcrowded trades.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:46 - Iran War and Oil Markets
00:04:20 - Gold Leading Commodity Prices
00:05:50 - SPR Refilling and Demand
00:12:47 - OPEC Supply Dynamics
00:18:57 - Attractive E&P Companies
00:21:53 - Precious Metals and Gold Outlook
00:26:29 - Fed Policy and Inflation Risks
00:36:25 - MAG7 and AI Profitability
00:43:35 - Cost of Compute & Open Models
00:49:05 - AI Bubble Popping
00:52:20 - Semis & Korea Performance
00:53:30 - Safer Investing
00:56:40 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Jesse Felder — Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report
Jesse Felder is the Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Since moving to Bend, Oregon in 2000 and founding The Felder Report shortly thereafter his writing and research have been featured in major publications and websites like The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Yahoo!Finance, Business Insider, RealVision, Investing.com, and more. Jesse also hosts and produces the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
X Website Articles

📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.
RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.
Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.
X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.
YouTube — Full video episodes.