We review the UK outlook in terms of economics and politics, as well as the ramifications for GBP, and we conclude with other views of note in the European space, namely regarding the SEK. Speakers James Nelligan Global FX Strategy, Allan Monks Chief UK Economist, Octavia Popescu Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 10 June 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5329335-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5332397-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global FX & Economics: UK Outlook, GBP and SEK

At Any Rate

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** At Any Rate

## Transcript

Welcome to the J.P. Morgan At Any Rate podcast. I'm James Nelligan from FX Strategy. I'm joined this week by Alan Monks, our UK economist, and Octavia Popescu, who was also with me in FX Strategy looking at the European currencies. So we're going to focus on the European area this week,

and particularly the UK outlook and Sterling, but we'll also have some other things to say about European currencies as well. So let's dive into it. Alan, we can start with you, particularly on the UK outlook. How are you seeing things at the moment? Obviously, we're drawing closer to the Makerfield by-election vote next week. We seem to be in an environment where global

central banks are kind of edging towards tightening policy. UK data has seemed a little bit resilient to us through the year. How are you seeing things playing out at the moment and going forward over the next period of time for the UK in terms of the broader outlook? Alan Monks Yes, thanks James.

Alan Monks So I think it's a busy week next week. We've got the by-election and the Bank of England as well. So I think on the politics side, there had been a little bit of uncertainty a couple of weeks ago about how Burnham would fare in the Maker Fiat by-election. Some of the polling was mixed, but I think as his campaign has got going, we saw that Servation poll last week that put Labour on a 10-point lead.

So it seems maybe you'd say 70, 80% chance that he wins that by-election. And then the next question will be, how quickly do you get a leadership challenge? He's indicated that he would push for one. I had a couple of stories that were doing the round suggesting that he might delay a leadership

contest in the hope that Starmer would kind of back down and you would have a sort of gentle handover period occurring in the background. So that might delay the transition to the next prime minister. But I think some of the more recent stories have suggested that Starmer would put up a fight here. So I would still think there's a leadership contest that takes place.

Which, you know, if you had others contesting that if West Streeting were to throw his hat into the ring as well, then I think it would be hard to see all of this done and dusted by July, which is probably the earliest you could think of. If there's a sort of short campaign period with some debates and then the vote is put around to Labour Party members, then this could add about six weeks onto the process at least.

So then you'd be looking at sort of late August or September. So that would be my time frame over which this occurs. I assume that Burnham would win a leadership contest. The polling points very much in that direction. And then it is a question of how radical would he be after being put in that position? And again, some people have suggested he wouldn't want to rock the boat in terms of large fiscal changes.

Obviously, the markets are sensitive to suggestions that Bo...

Global FX & Economics: UK Outlook, GBP and SEK

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Global FX & Economics: UK Outlook, GBP and SEK

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.