Recording date: 19th June 2026 Samuel Pelaez and Derek Macpherson of Olive Resource Capital make the case that the commodity bull market remains intact despite near-term volatility — and explain exactly how they are positioning for it. The pair cover the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz, where a US-Iran term sheet has eased but not eliminated geopolitical risk, and assess what a structurally different Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh means for industrial commodity demand. With crude pulling back toward $80 a barrel, Olive Resource Capital has been adding to oil and gas exposure. Takeover proceeds are being redeployed into small and mid-cap copper producers and explorers, with AI-driven data centre construction cited as a durable demand driver the market is underappreciating. Gold fundamentals remain intact, supported by expected central bank net buying and persistent global fiscal deficits. The discussion closes with a candid look at portfolio discipline - why entry points matter as much as stock selection, and why the firm is carrying above-average cash while waiting for risk to reprice. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

The Commodity Bull Market Is Still On: Olive Resource Capital's Macro Playbook | Compass

Company Interviews

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Company Interviews

## Participants

- **Sam Plez** (Olive Resource Capital)
- **Darren McPherson** (Olive Resource Capital)

## Transcript

Welcome back to The Compass. It is Friday, June 19th, a holiday in the US. Good time to kind of catch up on where we are macro. It's been a couple of weeks since we recorded and actually a lot's happened. With me as always is Sam Plez, President, CEO and CIO of Olive Resource Capital. And my name is Darren McPherson. I'm the Executive Chairman of Olive. A lot's happened. One of the things that we've been talking about a lot and how we've been deploying our capital is the risk association.

with the straight-up moves and a potential Iran deal. And on the 39th or 40th time that a possible deal was talked about by Trump, they actually got one per se. And so oil is flowing again on the straight-up moves, baby.

For us and people in the markets, the definition of an MOU or a term sheet is an indication that we may get somewhere. They've signed the term sheet. In fact, they agreed on a term sheet. They have 60 days to sign a real agreement. And there's still a lot of work to be done.

And I'm certainly very happy that there's something on the table. We don't need any more of this conflicts around the world. That is my personal view. And I'm pretty happy that this has happened. And the market has reacted, I suppose, favorably. And market risk has been a little bit on and off this week. But in general, you know, fruit prices have come off.

And that's a clear indication that the market expects the situation in Hormuz to be resolved. But lots of questions remain. Even some of the signatures of the agreement have kind of like publicly backtracked on some of the points through the part of this week. Yeah. Well, as of this morning, the straight-up moves is closed again by Iran because Israel is still active in Lebanon attack with Hezbollah.

So I'm going to like, you know, but, you know, so some antidotes came out of this post-the-peace deal. Some things came out. So, like, the U.S. was getting 3 million barrels a day out of the straight-up moves, which is a pretty significant number. But they were able to move that 3 million barrels a day. Iran was still getting oil out because they were shipping it along the coast to Pakistan and Afghanistan, you know, to Pakistan and India.

I don't know what to tell you. Like, this is – so the straight was open. It was not really that closed. It really wasn't that open. Now it's back open, but it's not really that closed again. And I think that's why we didn't see some of maybe the major supply shocks that they could have come through. The reality is the SPR was down. The U.S. SPR was down to a point where they had to – this had to happen. The flows needed to pick up. You know, I think the piece is going to be loose. I think there's going to be – still have these risk-on, risk-off moments.

To your point, I think they are progressing towards, you know...

The Commodity Bull Market Is Still On: Olive Resource Capital's Macro Playbook | Compass

Transcript

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The Commodity Bull Market Is Still On: Olive Resource Capital's Macro Playbook | Compass

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.