This week on Canadian Macro Investor, Simon and Dan break down a packed macro backdrop: global central banks turning more hawkish, Kevin Warsh’s push to rethink how the Fed communicates and uses data, and why markets may be too relaxed about inflation risks. They also discuss the Canadian dollar, oil prices, the fragile Iran memorandum of understanding, and whether geopolitical risk is being ignored because investors are so focused on the AI trade. From there, they dig into OSFI lowering the Domestic Stability Buffer for Canadian banks, what it could mean for credit creation, and whether Ottawa is quietly trying to stimulate the economy through the banking system. The episode wraps with Canada’s population decline, falling rents, purpose-built rental supply, and why the housing market could remain under pressure even if construction slows. Topics discussed: central banks, Fed policy, Bank of Canada, Canadian dollar, oil prices, Iran, AI stocks, OSFI, Canadian banks, housing, rents, population growth. Watch the full video on Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Fed Chair, Loonie Slides & Canada’s Population Keeps Falling

The Canadian Investor

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** The Canadian Investor

## Transcript

[SPEAKER_A] Investing is simple, but don't confuse that with thinking it's easy. A stock is not just a ticker. At the end of the day, you have to remember that it's a business.

[SPEAKER_B] Just my reminder to people who own cyclicals, don't be surprised when there's a cycle.

[SPEAKER_A] If there's uncertainty in the markets, there's going to be some great opportunities for investors. This has to be one of the biggest quarters I've seen from this company in quite some time.

[SPEAKER_B] Let's do this. Welcome back to weekly. We missed a week, but weekly Canadian Macro Investor. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think there's, it was, it was nice though. I mean, I mean, I guess it means people are listening to the show because a couple of people reached out to me and they're like, what are you guys still doing this? And I was like, no, sorry, we just took a week off. But anyway, we, on a weekly basis, we talk about macro and the way that it interacts with, I think Simon's world, which is more on the equity side and my world, which is more on the real estate side. And real estate being particularly exposed to interest rates. So that's kind of what I pay a lot of attention to. A lot. I mean, even last week we had a lot to talk about, but then this week I think there's even more, right? So you saw ECB hike last week. We saw who else? Bank of Japan.

[SPEAKER_A] Bank of Japan. Yeah.

[SPEAKER_B] And you know, it's funny. I mean, Warsh basically like—

[SPEAKER_A] Warsh, yeah.

[SPEAKER_B] Yeah, Warsh basically signaled that they probably will end up hiking, which the market has sort of been pricing in. Just funny, right? Like, I don't know, I, like, I think they'll do it. I don't— and then I think you have the— in Canada, you have the Canadian dollar. I mean, the US dollar is obviously strong ahead of the market trying to price in that they'll hike, and Canadian dollar probably signaling that the Bank of Canada won't be able to follow in that. I don't know, is your assessment the same as mine? Like, does that seem to be kind of what's going on?

[SPEAKER_A] Yeah, I think— well, for the Canadian dollar, I think that would be it. And then you factor that in with the Iran memorandum of agreement with the US, lower oil prices. So you have that kind of double whammy in the Canadian dollar. And then I'll just share here, obviously we've shown this quite a bit, but the CME Fed funds rate, now they're really pricing in a rate hike really soon, essentially almost guaranteed now in the September meeting. Yeah. So that's a bit of a change. I was a bit surprised, but did you listen to the press conference from Warsh? It was pretty—

[SPEAKER_B] As much as I could.

[SPEAKER_A] Yeah.

[SPEAKER_B] Yeah, no, it was good. It's just funny, right? Because like everybody was sort of talking about how like Trump would install him to get like, to get cuts. And now we're like, now we're talking immediately about hike...

New Fed Chair, Loonie Slides & Canada’s Population Keeps Falling

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
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New Fed Chair, Loonie Slides & Canada’s Population Keeps Falling

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.