Binance is out of the EU as of July 1 after its MICA license application in Greece was rejected. David runs through who is and isn&#x27;t licensed under MICA, checks Blockworks Research for Binance&#x27;s actual spot market share (~33%), and looks at whether the outflow data suggests real damage. Then: the US government is now effectively approving AI model releases — Anthropic&#x27;s Mythos 5 is live for a whitelist of 100+ orgs, Fable 5 still blocked, and OpenAI just did the same thing with GPT-V.Sol. David draws the parallel to how regulation changed crypto. Finally: Meta is building a prediction market app called Arena, with Zuck reportedly pursuing partnerships with Polymarket and Kaoshi. David checks Polymarket and Kaoshi&#x27;s open interest data and asks whether Meta is just late to the party again. TIMESTAMPS: [To be filled in] FOLLOW THE SHOW › David — https://x.com/dcanellis › The Breakdown — https://x.com/TheBreakdownBW › The Breakdown Newsletter — https://blockworks.com/newsletter/the-breakdown DISCLAIMER As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice.

Binance Needs A Friend in The European Union

The Breakdown

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** The Breakdown

## Transcript

Welcome back to The Breakdown everybody. I'm your host David Canellis as always. This morning we're looking at a few quick stories that are hanging around from last week that are yet to be resolved. We chatted a lot about strategy and sailor and Bitcoin last week, but there's a lot of other things happening in crypto that warrant some attention. Number one, we're looking at Binance versus the EU and its quest to be regulated under the MICA set of rules and regulations for exchanges and VASPs, as they like to be called in Europe. We're looking at the latest on that.

We're also going to be chatting about ChatGPT 5.6 and Mythos with the US. The US is really putting a stranglehold on the latest and greatest models coming out of the two big frontier labs. So checking in on the latest on those. And also Facebook is getting into prediction markets, not just building its own prediction markets that doesn't really seem like it's for cash right now. It's for like points or something or like funny money.

But also it really wants to cut deals with calcium and poly markets. So I'm wondering what the Zuck is really up to. And again, if it's just too late to the meta already, so to speak. All right. Okay. Enough out of me. Let's just get into it. This is The Breakdown.

Nothing said on The Breakdown is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed. Okay, so European Binance users are being urged to take their funds and assets and everything else off of the platform. Binance, this is from the Financial Times on Friday.

Binance has told its customers in the EU that it will stop providing services to them from next week, because it will not be licensed to operate in the region in a significant setback for the world's biggest crypto exchange. So these rules come into effect from July 1, which is on Wednesday. And I mean, Binance would have had to secure licensing from at least one EU member state before that January 1st deadline. But unfortunately, it hasn't been able to do that. Binance's application had tried going through Greece.

Binance's application in Greece for a block wide license was rejected last week, less than a fortnight before the deadline comes into force. Binance's application in the exchange now plans to apply through France, where it has previously been in talks about a license according to people familiar with the matter. But as the Financial Times report, even if they do somehow convince France to award them a license for MICA, it will come way after the July 1 deadline, which I imagine is super frustrating for customers in the EU.

And if you're basically changing platforms, it would be very difficult to convince them to jump back once the license comes through, I ...

Binance Needs A Friend in The European Union

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

Binance Needs A Friend in The European Union

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.