Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 29th, 2026, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Fed Independence Day

Macro Horizons

This is Macro Horizons, Episode 380, Fed Independence Day, presented by BMO Capital Markets. I'm your host, Ian Lingen, here with Ben Jeffery to bring you our thoughts from the trading desk for the upcoming week of June 29th. With the 4th of July weekend quickly approaching, we'll observe that in the wake of Warsh's debut as FOMC chair,

perhaps investors should consider June 17th as Fed Independence Day. Just a thought. Each week we offer an updated view on the U.S. rates market and a bad joke or two. But more importantly, this show is centered on responding directly to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

We also end each show with our musings on the week ahead. Please feel free to reach out on Bloomberg or email me at ian.lyngen at bmo.com with questions for future episodes. We value your input and hope to keep the show as interactive as possible. So that being said, let's get started.

In the week just passed, economic data was limited, although we did receive the core PCE print for the month of May. Here we saw core PCE up 0.3%. That was in keeping with the market consensus, although there had been some rumblings that an upside surprise of 0.4% was anticipated by some market participants.

On an unrounded basis, the move was 0.32%, so a solid but not particularly high 0.3%. As a result, the treasury market rallied with the front end of the curve outperforming. To be fair, rate hikes are still priced in, although not fully for the next meeting. But the front end of the curve benefited and the curve steepened on the margin.

Fed Independence Day

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Fed Independence Day

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.