Monday 15th June 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to discuss a week where markets are responding to the shifting realities of a proposed U.S.-Iran peace deal. Deep optimism over a potential memorandum of understanding opening the Strait of Hormuz toll-free pushed Brent crude down to $87.30 a barrel and led to sharp gains across European equities. Looking ahead to a massive week of central bank decisions—including the Fed, Bank of England, and a highly anticipated Bank of Japan hike—the focus turns to the RBA&#x27;s upcoming statement. Sally expects the board to maintain its steady path while striking a balanced tone; the RBA will likely acknowledge cooling domestic activity via soft housing metrics and dropping capacity utilization rates, yet remain anxious over sticky inflation pipelines, leaving the truly consequential policy and forecast revisions till their August meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A few hours away

NAB Morning Call

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** NAB Morning Call

## Participants

- **Phil Dobbie** (None)
- **Sally Old** (NAB)
- **Sally Old** (NAB)

## Transcript

The extension to the ceasefire in the Gulf remains a few hours away. It's been that for a while, but hopes remain high, although an Israeli attack on Beirut hasn't helped over the weekend. There's that, and then there's a week awash with central bank meetings, including the RBA tomorrow. We've got Sally Old to talk us through all of that. It's Monday, it's the 15th of June, 2026. It's the Morning Call from NAB. Good morning. Well, equities rose on Friday, up 0.3% for the NASDAQ, half a percent for the S&P,

but bigger leaps forward in Europe, so a 2.2% rise in the Eurostoxx 50. The FTSE, the DAX and the CATC on all up between 1.6% and 1.8%. SpaceX started trading on Friday, of course. Its fixed price was 135. It opened at 150 and closed at around 161. So to infinity and beyond day one for SpaceX. And big falls in oil on Friday, 3.4% off Brent, 3.2% off WTI. Brent down to 87.30 a barrel.

It was a bit all over the place, though. We'll talk about that in a second. The US dollar fell a little on Friday as well, but so did the Aussie dollar, sitting just below 70.5 US cents. The Korean won was the big move. That's up 1%. And bond yields up a little in the US, up two basis points for 10-year treasuries. But in Europe, well, big falls, a seven basis point fall in UK, 10-year gilt yields. Yields down six basis points in France, four in Germany, eight in Italy. And here comes NAB's Sally Old.

So, Sally, markets clearly optimistic about this extension to the ceasefire in the Middle East. Oil is at its lowest or has been at its lowest since mid-April. But the reports this morning, full of Donald Trump's response to an Israeli attack on Beirut over the weekend, he said on social media, this should not have happened, particularly on a special day when we are so close to a peace deal with Iran.

The question is, of course, will it delay this deal, which has been a few hours away for three days now? Yeah. Good morning, Phil. So that's right. So I guess, you know, as we headed into the weekend, you know, both here in Sydney and then later in London and New York, you know, people were very optimistic about the prospect of a deal being, you know, within reach. And like you said, you know, expectations that would happen pretty quickly.

But as we look at overnight headlines this morning, clearly this hit a bit of a snag over the weekend, given the strike on Beirut. And I think, you know, President Trump is doing his best to sort of say no one should be firing on anyone. And let's let's get the deal done. And, you know, through the weekend, we haven't had exactly hugely constructive responses from the Iranian side.

But I think, you know, all of that notwithstanding, we still start this week with expectations, you know, that the deal is perhaps closer than it's ever been at any point in the last couple of months. M...

A few hours away

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

A few hours away

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.