Michael Gentile: The Iran War to Accelerates Gold’s Rise & The Silver Bull-Thesis

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Michael Gentile to the show. Michael Gentile is Strategic Investor & Co-Founder, Bastion Asset Management. Gentile remains very bullish on precious metals, maintaining a five-to-ten-year investment horizon. He argues that short-term volatility in gold and silver does not alter the long-term macro thesis driven by unassailable U.S. debt levels. With U.S. debt approaching $40 trillion and interest expenses potentially consuming 40% of government revenues, Gentile sees currency debasement as the only path forward, which favors gold. He notes that while central bank buying has driven gold’s rise from $1,350 to over $4,000, mainstream investors still allocate only 1-2% of portfolios to gold, leaving significant room for a second wave of demand that could turbocharge prices.

Gentile highlights a historic opportunity in gold equities, where producers are generating record free cash flow due to expanding margins—from $400 to $2,000 per ounce—while tech company free cash flow dries up. This undervaluation extends to junior miners, where he focuses on resource-stage companies with assets that can realistically become mines. He seeks companies trading at $20-$50 per ounce in the ground that could be acquired for $300-$500 per ounce as majors deploy their high margins. He stresses that most juniors will never become mines, so rigorous asset selection is critical.

Beyond gold, Gentile discussed his first royalty investment in Silver Crown Royalties, attracted by its pure silver focus, cost-of-capital advantage, and ability to monetize byproduct silver from gold mines. He sees copper as having strong long-term supply-demand dynamics but finds better value in junior copper developers with buildable assets. He avoids niche commodities like tungsten due to unpredictable long-term pricing and stays away from short-term trading in oil and gas or fertilizer inputs, preferring deep, broad markets. Gentile announced a European roadshow in October, including a London conference featuring his top 20 portfolio companies.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:05 – Bullish on Precious Metals

00:03:21 – Impact of Middle East Conflict

00:08:53 – US Government Debt Analysis

00:13:48 – Gold Trend & Value

00:15:40 – Gold Producers Opportunity

00:19:12 – Why Juniors Provide Leverage

00:24:52 – Recent Big Investments

00:30:10 – Silver Crown Royalties Position

00:34:47 – Silver Thesis

00:38:42 – Critical Minerals like Tungsten

00:42:33 – Oil and Gas Outlook

00:46:06 – Copper Market Analysis

00:51:15 – Coal and Other Commodities

00:56:21 – Roadshow and Newsletter

Guest Links:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-gentile-01028552

Website: https://www.bastion-am.com/

Mining & Metals European Roadshow: https://saturdaymorningmining.subscribepage.io/

Michael Gentile, CFA is Founding Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager at Bastion Asset Management. Before founding BAM, Michael was Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager at Formula Growth Ltd for over 17 years. Michael co-managed the FG Alpha Fund (US SMid equity market neutral) between 2012 and 2018, co-managed the FG Focus Fund (US SMid long short strategy) between 2014 and 2018. Since leaving FG in 2018, Michael has been very successful investing in the gold sector also acting as Strategic Advisor and Director for several companies in the natural resource sector. Michael graduated with Great Distinction from the John Molson School of Business (Concordia University) with a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) and received the Calvin Potter Fellowship from Concordia’s Kenneth Woods Portfolio Management Program. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation (CFA)