The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond just reached its highest level since 2007. And to a lot of people, this means everything - from inflation to fiscal deficits. There’s just one problem. The 30-year bond is not actually doing what everyone says it is. Eurodollar University&#x27;s Money &amp; Macro Analysis ------------------------------------------------ Eurodollar University Live 2 October 9-12, West Palm Beach, Florida 40 seats exist. Application only. https://eurodollar-university.com/edu-conference-2026 ------------------------------------------------ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2njjIkGROx4 https://www.facebook.com/bloombergbusiness/videos/long-term-borrowing-costs-have-hit-their-highest-level-in-decades-on-the-back-of/1413253187330397/ https://www.facebook.com/FirstPrudentialMarkets/videos/30-year-us-treasury-yields-just-hit-levels-not-seen-since-2007-stocks-wobbled-oi/1785429659307592/ https://www.ms.now/money-power-politics/watch/u-s-bond-selloff-drives-30-year-yields-to-highest-point-since-2007-2511366211745 https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-mortgage-rates-soar-highest-more-than-23-years-2023-10-25/ https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/02/investing/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-7-percent-interest-rate-recession https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU I’ll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

30-Year Bond Yields Are Surging... Here’s What It Means

Eurodollar University

The yield on the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond just reached its highest level since 2007. And to a lot of people, this means everything. Inflation is coming back. Investors no longer trust the Federal Reserve. Foreign buyers are abandoning America. Government debt has finally overwhelmed the bond market. After sleeping for half a century, the legendary bond vigilantes have awakened to punish Washington. There's just one problem. The 30-Year Bond is not actually doing what everyone says it is.

Yes, its yield reached 5.31%, but almost three years ago, in October 2023, the same yield moved above 5% for the first time since 2007, and everyone told the same story then. Since that supposedly historic moment, the 30-Year Yield has risen only about 20 basis points. 20 basis points in nearly three years is not a bond market revolution. It is barely a rounding error in an otherwise volatile global marketplace.

More importantly, it's what the rest of the Treasury curve is doing that explains it all. While everyone spends another 30 on their dial, the long bond is long something, all right. So today we're following two stories. The one is the dramatic narrative that's been attached to the long bond and the 30-Year Yield. The other is what's actually happening on the curve specifically. Once you see what's actually happening, you'll see how the narrative, there's so much more than meets the eye,

and how the highest yield since 2007 just doesn't mean what everyone says it means. The mainstream story begins with a big, intimidating number. The 30-Year Treasury Yield climbed to approximately 5.31% yesterday, its highest level since June 2007. The 10-Year Yield moved toward 475-ish, its highest in 19 months. And this wasn't isolated to the United States.

30-Year Bond Yields Are Surging... Here’s What It Means

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

30-Year Bond Yields Are Surging... Here’s What It Means

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.