After a busy week of central bank meetings, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA &amp; International Securities sits down with Nico Jan Thiesen, Global Client Sales to discuss the implications for the FX markets. The Fed meeting impact on the dollar, the BoJ impact on the yen and the BoE impact on the pound are discussed as are the implications for EUR cross currency risks given the potential for moves in the US dollar.

FX Crosscurrents: The Impact of Global Central Bank Decisions

The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

## Transcript

Welcome to the MUFG Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast with Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities. It's Friday, June 19th, 2026 and joining Derek to pose some questions on the financial market themes for the week ahead is Nico Jamthinsen, Global Client Sales.

This material is only intended for professional investors in jurisdictions in which its use is permitted under applicable laws, rules and regulations. It has been produced for information purposes only and should not be construed as investment research or advice. MUFG EMEA disclaimers and disclosures can be located on our website. Hi Derek, how are you? I'm very good Nico, how are you?

Yeah, not bad, not bad. Thank you. In this very busy central bank week. So it has been very busy. We had RBA, Bank of Japan, Fed, Riksbank, Bank of England, SNB. And, you know, looking at what happened over the last days, big move in the dollar, probably the Fed meeting was the most important one.

What are your thoughts on the FOMC outcome? And, you know, especially rate wise, what do you expect the Fed to do? Yeah, like I totally get the reaction in the markets. I think the DOT's profile and the median DOT profile was really the clincher in terms of the market move.

And since the DOT profile began, the first one was published back in 2012.

We've never had a bigger shift from one publication to the next in terms of moving from, you know, nobody expecting a hike in the March dot profile to nine expecting a hike in this one. So it was a dramatic shift. And I think that certainly spooked the market.

Kevin Warsh himself, you know, he didn't, he clearly doesn't like forward guidance and he didn't give a dot in the profile. So, and the statement was shorter and, you know, he's launched these reviews of different aspects of Fed's functioning and policy.

So we're in for some significant changes, but he did keep reiterating or he kept reiterating the need for price stability and saying that the Fed would achieve price stability. So, yeah, all in all it was hawkish, but do we really believe or should we put a lot of emphasis on the DOT profile, which is probably going to be abandoned relatively soon?

And was that DOT profile shaped in any way by the fact that there was a change in leadership? I certainly think there could have been an attempt to send a message that, you know, it's the whole FOMC. And in that sense, you know, we're still back to, I guess, the data going forward and ultimately inflation and the labor market.

And, you know, it's our view that inflation has has in or around peaked. And through the rest of this year, we should see some disinflation in the annual rate as the energy drop feeds through, but also OER corrections weaker. And the tariff impact from last year also kind of falling out of annual rate. So I think inflation drops back.

So I don't think we're going to ...

FX Crosscurrents: The Impact of Global Central Bank Decisions

Transcript

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FX Crosscurrents: The Impact of Global Central Bank Decisions

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.