#377 Ted Oakley: We're Toward The End, Late Stage Market, Lemmings Everywhere

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, warns the market is exhibiting all the markings of late stage using a Warren Buffett 1999 quote: "when you get to the point where every single thing that people do, any kind of strategy is up in the market...you're probably toward the end." He describes it as a "lemmings market" where followers are piling in, notes IPOs are bursting (90% lose money over 135 years), and reveals the Mag 7 is mostly down since November with only semiconductors rallying. Oakley warns baby boomers are "brain dead" and way over-invested in stocks at historic highs as a percentage of assets—if a bear market hits like 2000-2003 (down 55%), they lack the liquidity to sustain their lifestyle during down years. He's adding back gold after it corrected from $5,500 to $4,000, buying copper and natural gas as plays on AI infrastructure needs, and positioning for a commodity supercycle in early innings driven by countries hoarding raw materials. Oakley reveals energy is "dramatically cheap" with 6-8% dividends, oil reserves are depleted, and he's building a "well to the end" strategy with producers and pipelines that "can't be replaced"—like railroads. He explains gold is becoming the new currency reserve as countries dump treasuries for gold, warns private credit is a blowup risk at 11.75% rates, and emphasizes that for SpaceX windfall employees, they should take money off the table and ice enough for life. His parting advice: stick with your principles and don't let the hype throw you off.

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Links:
Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors
X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:
0:00 Opening and introduction
1:23 Market assessment
2:40 IPOs
3:49 Late stage market indicators
7:14 Added back gold after trimming early year, mining stocks down 30%
8:05 Copper and natural gas needed for AI infrastructure
8:25 Companies on fundamentals, not macro chasing
11:16 Next 10 years commodity-based market
12:51 Commodity supercycle early innings
18:54 Energy thesis
21:47 Gold thesis - Currency reserve replacing treasuries
28:30 Bifurcated economy
29:18 Baby boomers way overinvested
32:30 Everybody's in market more than any time
37:25 Biggest risk - Government nobody believes in
39:53 Private credit issue
42:24 SpaceX windfall employees - Take some off table
44:07 Parting thoughts - Stick with your principles