Alex Gurevich talks about the next perfect trade! We discuss major shifts in the macro investing landscape, including the breakdown of the traditional stock-bond relationship, why U.S. Treasuries no longer act as a reliable flight-to-safety asset, and how inflation, fiscal policy, and changing market regimes are reshaping investment strategies. Alex shares his framework for identifying high-probability trades, explains why he believes interest rates could ultimately return to zero if the labor market weakens, and discusses opportunities and risks in global markets, currencies, gold, emerging markets, and China. We also explore the long-term impact of artificial intelligence on productivity, employment, and economic growth and more! We discuss... The breakdown of the traditional stock-bond relationship and how it is changing portfolio diversification strategies. Why U.S. Treasuries are no longer acting as a reliable flight-to-safety asset and what that means for investors. The impact of inflation, fiscal policy, and shifting market regimes on the macroeconomic outlook. Why labor market trends remain the most important factor influencing future Federal Reserve decisions. The possibility that interest rates could eventually return to zero if economic growth and employment weaken. Investment opportunities and risks across currencies, bonds, emerging markets, and international equities. The relative attractiveness of gold, U.S. Treasuries, and other hard assets in the current environment. China&#x27;s economic challenges, AI ambitions, and its position in the global race for technological leadership. How artificial intelligence is driving investment, productivity gains, and economic growth across multiple sectors. The potential for AI-driven job displacement and a temporary economic adjustment period before larger long-term benefits emerge. Key market risks stemming from geopolitical conflict, energy prices, and evolving global economic dynamics. Today&#x27;s Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/next-perfect-trade-alex-gurevich-824

What Is The Next Perfect Trade?

Money Tree Investing

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Money Tree Investing

## Participants

- **Kirk Chisholm** (Innovative Advisory Group)
- **Alex Garevich** (Honte Investments)
- **Barbara Friedberg** (Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance)
- **Phil Weiss** (Apprise Wealth Management)

## Transcript

Welcome to the Money Tree Investing Podcast. Stock market, wealth, personal finance, value stocks, invest in your life. Hello, Money Tree Investing Podcast listeners. Welcome to this week's show. My name is Kirk Chisholm and I'll be your host. So today I'm joined with returning guest, Alex Garevich. How are you doing, Alex? It's good to be back. Thank you for having me. Yeah, glad to have you in the show. We had a great episode with you last time and happy to dive right in with all this going on in the world.

So for those listeners who didn't hear you before, tell us a little bit about who you are and your background. So I run a macro fund called Honte Investments in the Bay Area. My background is actually in math. I went to the University of Chicago and got a PhD in mathematics. But I was always interested in strategy, strategic games and everything related to strategic thinking. So finance was a very natural place for me to go.

And I ended up on Wall Street doing many different things on Wall Street, starting with customer derivative trading, moving to proprietary trading and eventually running my own money and running hedge funds. So that's kind of a very brief summary of my background. You know, I love the fact you've got a background in kind of the macro perspective. You know, I know you had a book out around 2020 and you've got another book out now.

And how have things changed in your point of view in the last six years from a macro perspective? Like how have things changed in your mind? Well, the paradigms definitely changed. The fundamental principles of trading, I think, remain rather intact. But we definitely paradigm changed a lot, I think, in 2020 or rather like maybe like in early 2020s because first 20 years of the century were dominated.

In my real opinion, the macro was dominated by risk parity paradigm. Really, the greatest trait of the first 20 years of the century was the risk parity. The idea that when stocks go down, bonds go up and bonds go down typically in the environment when stocks go up. And that allowed people to build balanced portfolios. And I was one of the early adopters of this, though, not the earliest. But I was one of the people who started it independently to do it back when I was at J.P. Morgan.

The idea that you can have a portfolio, you can be long stocks and actually hedge it by being long bonds. Or even conversely, which was in my case in 2002, I hedged my long bonds position by being long stocks. Because I figured that the only way that would tighten, many tightening surprised, but the only way that would tighten the stock market would go up a lot. So that was the paradigm, the way of thinking, which I eventually expanded t...

What Is The Next Perfect Trade?

Transcript

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edge in conversations you're not hearing.

What Is The Next Perfect Trade?

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.