In this podcast Francis Diamond, Khagendra Gupta and Aditya Chordia discuss the upcoming ECB meeting, thoughts on yields over the summer and UK politics. If you have enjoyed listening to our podcast and reading our research we would great appreciate your support for us, the European Rates Strategy team, in the 2026 Extel Global Fixed Income Research survey in the Developed Europe: Economics &amp; Strategy voting section. This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5366265-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Rates: Summer thoughts on European rates

At Any Rate

Hi, and welcome to At Any Rate, J.P. Morgan's global research podcast, where we take a look at some of the drivers behind the biggest trends and themes across fixed income, currencies and commodity markets. I'm Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy at J.P. Morgan, and today I'm joined by my colleagues Gendrik Gupta and Aditya Chaudhia to discuss the upcoming ECB meeting, thoughts on European yields over the summer and UK politics.

But before we cook off, if you've enjoyed listening to our podcast and reading our research, we greatly appreciate your support for us and J.P. Morgan in the 2026 Extel Global Fixed Income Research Survey under the Developed Europe Economics and Strategy Voting Section. So, Gendrik, let's start with the ECB, who are widely expected to keep rates on hold at the July meeting next week. Markets are close to fully pricing a 25 base point hike by September.

But given recent energy moves, what message do you think we'll get from the ECB? And when we look at market pricing of two more rate hikes by the Q1, Q2 next year, does that look appropriate in your view? Yeah, thanks, Francis. As you mentioned, the Estra Curve is pricing kind of unchanged policy rate in July and close to a full hike by September and also a peak of another, let's say, around 55 basis point of cumulative hikes by mid-middle of next year.

These pricings have repriced sharply higher over the last two weeks as the U.S.-Iran truce collapsed. For instance, at the end of June, market was pricing just around 50% probability of a hike in September and cumulative just about one more hike by middle of next year.

Global Rates: Summer thoughts on European rates

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Global Rates: Summer thoughts on European rates

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.