Andreas Steno is back flying solo again to answer the question that matters most for markets right now: Is the oil still flowing? Andreas examines what we actually know about energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, how oil markets have responded, and why the feared supply shock never materialized. oday’s sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you’re a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500’s user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you’ve been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss. Let Monarch do your financial &#x27;spring cleaning&#x27; for you! Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50.01:00 - Macro Mondays: Is the Oil Still Flowing? What Markets Need to Know 03:22 - Strait of Hormuz Reopens? What the Shipping Data Really Shows05:25 - Oil, Jet Fuel, and Fertilizer Prices Are Rolling Over Fast07:51 - Falling Inflation Changes the Entire Macro Regime09:24 - Why Central Banks Still Haven’t Caught Up to the Disinflation Shift13:17 - Anthropic Export Curbs and the New AI Arms Race17:51 - SpaceX IPO Mania and What It Says About Risk Appetite19:55 - IPO Boom, Liquidity, and Why This Cycle May Still Have Room to Run22:45 - South Korea Exports and Why Semiconductors Still Look Strong17:15 - Defining Therapeutics, Psychedelics, and the Next Big Micro Trade19:35 - MicroStrategy, Bitcoin Risk, and What Actually Matters Now Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Is Oil Still Flowing? | Macro Mondays: Monday, June 22, 2026

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Real Vision: Finance &amp; Investing

## Participants

- **Andreas Steno** (Steno Research)

## Transcript

New week, you ready?

Sometimes it may be good, sometimes it may be shit.

But before we get started, from Connect to Alpha to Pro, we've basically dropped our prices to their lowest levels ever here at Real Vision. The setup is once in a lifetime. That's why we're slashing prices so you don't miss out. So you can go to realvision.com slash pricing to secure your future today.

And of course, to complement all of that, we have our three flagship reports here from Steno Research with our portfolio updates and more for the Pro tier each and every week. And I can tell you that we are on an absolute roll at the moment. So it's probably worth every penny if you buy a Pro subscription. At least I'm a very, very happy guy today and I'll get back to Wise Awards at the end of this show.

Before we get to the micro portfolio ideas, let's have a look at the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. I think it was on Sunday, Iran suddenly told the world media outlets that they were planning on leaving the negotiations due to the hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

And as far as we know, live as I'm speaking here, the negotiations are still ongoing. We've actually had pretty decent news flow out of the negotiations today. But it's still unlikely that the situation will improve in a straight line from here. Remember that it's less than a week ago that we got the signing of this memorandum of understanding between the two parties.

And yet a few days after that, we suddenly had the Iranian side out saying that they would close the Strait of Hormuz again. So maybe that's a good place to start. Is the Strait of Hormuz actually closed or is it open? Let's have a look at the flow data that we can actually confirm on page five.

So after the signing of the memorandum mid last week, we had a couple of very solid flow days, as you can see from the spike here on the chart of vessels crossings in the Strait of Hormuz. We're still pretty far from normalized levels pre-war.

But as far as I can count and also confirmed by the U.S. administration, we had oil flowing at an extent that was pretty close to pre-war levels during Friday and Saturday. Then on Sunday, we had these hiccups in the negotiations and only one major oil cargo left the region with Saudi Arabian oil. So maybe three, three and a half million barrels left the region on Sunday.

Today, still no confirmed news about the flow out of the region. But the oil is at least partially flowing and the Strait is partially open. I think that's the fair assumption as we speak and remember, which is basically a testimony to the thesis that we laid out during April and May, where we lectured right about every oil pond on Earth. There is also a flow that is unaccounted for in this official data.

We had a flow out of Abu Dhabi to, among other places, the U.S. during May, for...

Is Oil Still Flowing? | Macro Mondays: Monday, June 22, 2026

Transcript

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Is Oil Still Flowing? | Macro Mondays: Monday, June 22, 2026

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.