Brent is up nearly 40% in July, setting itself up for the strongest monthly gain since March. With flows from the Persian Gulf suppressed and Red Sea shipments at risk, it appears that geopolitics has taken control of the wheel once again. The story is, however, more nuanced. Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research This podcast was recorded on July 24, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5374973-0 and for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Commodities: The Freakonomics of Oil

At Any Rate

[SPEAKER_A] Hello and welcome to another episode of At Any Rate. I'm your host, Natasha Kaneva, and I head J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research. The latest escalation in the Middle East hostilities has propelled Brent prices up nearly 40% in July, putting it on pace for the strongest monthly gain since March. In the US, the national average gasoline price has moved decisively back above $4 per gallon for the first time since mid-June. Up from $3.79 just 2 weeks ago. The story is very similar for the natural gas markets, especially the global natural gas markets, where European benchmarks are up nearly 40% to €64 per megawatt-hour, up from their end-of-June lows. At first glance, it appears that geopolitics has once again taken control of the wheel in energy markets. Taking account of rerouting, flows from the Persian Gulf are running at just 50% of their pre-war levels, while Red Sea attacks by the Houthis threatened the an additional almost 5 million barrels per day coming out of Yanbu. This is a Saudi Arabian port that has been a crucial bypass mechanism.

[SPEAKER_B] Gas flows via Hormuz have fully stopped, down from 15% of pre-war levels just 2 weeks ago. However, even though the scale of potential disruptions has expanded from the levels of April and May, oil prices appear to be relatively low today at only $97 and just $10 above our fair value estimate for July. Which, by the way, assumed about 73% for oil flows recovery versus the 50% we're observing at the moment. The situation has naturally created two questions. Number one is a very straightforward question, why the prices, while the other one is a more forward-looking question.

Global Commodities: The Freakonomics of Oil

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Global Commodities: The Freakonomics of Oil

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.