Scenario planning allows investors and executives to prepare for situations outside of their base-case expectations. S&amp;P Global Energy developed a new case called &quot;Quagmire&quot; that assumes conflict around the Strait of Hormuz becomes a permanent geopolitical feature and trade flows fragment in favor of regional energy security.<br>Oil markets experts Louise Vertz and Sandra Abdallah join hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to walk us through the assumptions in S&amp;P Global Energy&#x27;s &quot;Quagmire&quot; scenario and explain what lasting changes could be in store for oil markets if disruption turns from months into years.<br>Learn more about S&amp;P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

Quagmire: Scenario planning a case for lasting oil markets disruption (Ep. 258)

EnergyCents

Alright, welcome back to EnergyCents. S&P Global Energy podcast covering all topics on the intersection of energy and finance. This is your host, Hill Vaden. Here with your other host, Sam Humphreys. Sam, how's it going? Sam Humphreys: Pretty good thanks. Hil, how are you? Tim Spacelli": Doing alright. And we have just finished a podcast with two of our oil experts. So Sandy Abdulla, and Luis Veretz are talking about a scenario outlook, a scenario

So a long-term planning exercise of what may or may, what could happen if certain things play out, right? And so we've talked a lot about the straight-up-form moves and what's going on globally right now with oil markets. And this is a scenario that we call quagmire that looks at what could, you know, how bad things might get if the straight stays closed, effectively closed for many years. Can you give people, listeners,

some things to pay attention to over the next 30 minutes or so? So the biggest takeaway, the biggest element of this is demand destruction. And so that is the country's government's response to this continued shutdown and how they might react, whether it's curtailing demand, you know, looking at alternative fuels and what that might look like in global oil markets in the future, which is extremely interesting. But what about you?

Is there anything particularly you want to call out? Yeah, I mean, I just think that people should, you know, that the idea is a structural demand destruction. And then that, you know, has implications for other parts of the economy and other fuels and technologies. So Louise and Sandy do a good job going to some of these details and we can hand it off to them now.

Quagmire: Scenario planning a case for lasting oil markets disruption (Ep. 258)

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Quagmire: Scenario planning a case for lasting oil markets disruption (Ep. 258)

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.