Just as markets embraced an open Strait of Hormuz, a sense of déjà vu has washed over the commodities world when vessels were attacked this week. At the same time, Russian refineries continue to be targeted by drones, copper is again consumed by tariff uncertainty and the gas situation in Europe is setting up for a difficult winter. Speakers: Otar Dgebuadze, European Natural Gas Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy This podcast was recorded on July 10, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5359286-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5355846-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5336739-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Commodities: A sense of déjà vu

At Any Rate

Hello, and welcome to another episode of At Any Rate. I'm Greg Scheer, your host for today, and I head up base and precious metals research at J.P. Morgan. Just as markets embraced an open Strait of Hormuz and this incoming oil supply gut, a sense of déjà vu has washed over the commodities world this week. President Trump has warned that the ceasefire with Iran may be over after an exchange of missile strikes.

While these attacks are not extensive and energy infrastructure seems to be spared, damage to vessels traversing the waterway are derailing efforts to resume normal operations. Flows have come off 31% from the highs reached at the end of June and are currently tracking just under 10 million barrels per day this week, less than half of pre-war levels.

At the same time, while the crude market is repricing developments in the Middle East, petroleum products are focused on an issue 2,000 miles away from Hormuz, where Ukrainian drones have brought down Russian refinery run rates by a third of normal levels. There have also been ample discussions in other commodities, namely copper and liquefied natural gas, which we will focus on today.

On copper, uncertainty around tariffs loom large, while the gas situation in Europe is setting up for a difficult winter. To discuss this week's plentiful supply of commodity news, I'm joined today by Otar Dgebuadze, who leads European natural gas research at J.P. Morgan. Otar, thank you again for joining. Otar, let's start on oil and petroleum products. Otar, what have we really been focusing on this week?

Global Commodities: A sense of déjà vu

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Global Commodities: A sense of déjà vu

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.