After a relatively subdued period between March and April, volatility has returned to the cocoa market in force. Cocoa prices, still down 23.5% year-to-date, have rallied 31% since the beginning of May as bullish fundamentals reemerge. Key drivers include the transition toward an active El Niño event, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a slow start to the development of West Africa&#x27;s 2026/27 main crop. Join Carlos Mera and Oran van Dort as they discuss the delectable but turbulent world of cocoa.<br><br>Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

Cocoa conversations: Cocoa strikes back

RaboResearch Agri Commodities

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** RaboResearch Agri Commodities

## Transcript

Hello, welcome to another ACMAP Podcast. My name is Carlos Mera, I'm the Head of Agri-Community Market Research at Rabobank in London. And joining me today is Oran van Doort, our Lead Cocoa Analyst. Hi Oran. So Oran, in the year and a half to April 2026, cocoa prices have been on a clear downtrend

of record high prices. But then since May 2026, cocoa prices have rediscovered upside volatility. So for example, cocoa futures are trading still 23% below prices at the start of the year, but they are 31% higher since the end of April. Oran, could you briefly take us through the main developments over the last

two months? Cocoa crop surveys showing a slow start to the upcoming 26-27 main crop in Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana. And this was then all exacerbated by heavy short covering from speculators. Prices then briefly dipped in the latter half of May, mostly off of more bearish news, which allowed the market to remember we're in an oversupply scenario. So we saw strong development in the 2526

West African mid crop. Cote d'Ivoire raises production outlook for 2526 to somewhere between 2.1 to 2.2 million metric tons. We think that's maybe heavily overstated that number, but it supports that mid crop narrative and there's evidence of soft demand. And in June, those same bullish themes that I mentioned in May kind of came forward. So NOAA announced that we're an active El Nino event and increased the severity of a strong El Nino at the end of the year from 37 to 63%. And crop surveys in Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana

continue to show slow main crop development, although it still is early days. And lastly, improving conditions in the Middle East provides a more favorable demand outlook. So that's kind of where we are at now. So you mentioned that some market participants have done credit production and some surveys have come up with disappointing results. And I hear some market participants

are expecting the next season to bring a bit of a deficit. But I remember last time we spoke on this podcast, you were expecting the 2627 season to bring a large surplus. Is that still the case? Yeah. So just to start off, I think it's important to flag that there are many factors currently affecting supply and demand. Like I said, a strong West African mid crop, a slow start to the upcoming

main crop, albeit early days and absence signals of a recovery in demand, such as a large multinational swapping the strategy to premonization and cocoa-free alternatives over higher volume sales. And a lot of discussion in media about cocoa-free alternatives. So there's a lot of factors to take into account when looking at supply and demand. But we do essentially, since that last podcast,

I think in February, we still maintain our surpluses. Although the, I think the 2627 one has been trimmed, accounting for those recent bullish factors. So for 2526, we expect it to be a 333,000 metric tonne surplus. And for 2...

Cocoa conversations: Cocoa strikes back

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

Cocoa conversations: Cocoa strikes back

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.