The Strait of Hormuz has (mostly) re-opened! Crude prices are still up since the start of the war with Iran, but popular predictions earlier this year of $200-a-barrel Brent didn’t pan out. Why is that? We last talked to Rory Johnston, the founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, at the start of the conflict. And in that conversation he said that the Strait’s closure would lead to $200 oil if it persisted for any length of time. Today, he returns to tell us what he’s learned about the oil market since then. He explains the various factors that kept a lid on prices, including some re-routing, Trump jawboning, and (crucially) surprise import reductions from China.<br>Previous: Rory Johnston on How Oil Could Surge to Over $200 a Barrel<br>Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox, plus unlimited access to the site and app. bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots<br>See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

Odd Lots

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Odd Lots

## Participants

- **Joe Weisenthal** (Bloomberg)
- **Tracy Alloway** (Bloomberg)
- **Rory Johnston** (Commodity Context)

## Transcript

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Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal. And I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy, recording this June 24th at noon, Brent Crude is below $74 a barrel. I know. It's crazy to look back when the Iran war started. I don't think we ever got above like $120 per barrel on Brent. Despite this scenario, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the thing that

oil analysts had talked about as a tail risk event for years and years and years actually happening. No, it is really remarkable. We had two peaks. There was one right at the end of March and then one right at the end of April, basically. And the closing price right around just a little bit shy of $120 both of those days. But no, absolutely not like some of the doomsday scenarios, at least for now. You know, their crossings are picking up. I guess negotiations are ongoing of some sort.

But no, they clearly the doomsday scenarios about how this couldn't even stay closed for a few weeks, let alone two or three months, did not pan out. I see a lot of people on Twitter slash X making fun of the barrel counters right now. Yes. Which I have a lot of sympath...

Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
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Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.