A potential Super El Niño could be far more than a weather event. It could become a global supply-side shock, disrupting food production, energy systems, mining, transport and trade while adding to inflation and political instability. In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, adapted from a Sept. 9 S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence client webinar, experts examine how extreme weather could compound existing pressures across Asia-Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the wider global economy. Listen to learn: Why a Super El Niño could produce a synchronized shock across agriculture, energy and logistics Why food prices—especially rice, wheat, cocoa, vegetable oil and sugar—are a critical channel into inflation, household spending and policy intervention Where drought, flooding and water stress pose the greatest risks to hydropower, mining, manufacturing and export infrastructure Which markets warrant close monitoring Which indicators companies should monitor over the next 90 days to judge whether risks are stabilizing or escalating More S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence Content: Picture This: Super El Niño Spurs Stagflationary Impulse in the Global Economy Geopolitical Risk Brief: September 2026 Global Economic Outlook: September 2026 For S&amp;P Global subscribers (login required): Impact of super El Niño Super El Niño 2026-27: Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa El Niño 2026–27: Agriculture, macroeconomic and policy implications for APAC Credits: Host: Susan Minio Guests: Justin Valentino, Ahmad Mobeen, Martin Roberts Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun

Super El Niño: How Weather Shocks Ripple Through the Global Economy

The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

You're listening to The Decisive Podcast, insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making. Hello, and welcome to The Decisive Podcast. I'm your usual host, Kristen Hallam. In this episode, taken from our September 9th client webinar, we're looking at a risk that is often described as a weather event. But for businesses, it's much more than that. A potential super El Niño could become a

supply-side shock that moves through food systems, energy grids, mining operations, inflation expectations, and political stability. The central question for business leaders is how this shock compounds with other pressures already in the system, from higher fertilizer and fuel costs to supply chain disruption, food insecurity, tighter policy settings, and geopolitical stress. We'll explore what this could mean in the future,

the discussion of the future, and what those companies should be watching as the events develop. The discussion features S&P Global Market Intelligence experts Ahmad Moubin, who's a principal economist for Asia Pacific, Martin Roberts, who is an associate director of country risk for sub-Saharan Africa, and Justin Valentino, who's the head of our risk quantification and scenarios.

Without further ado, I'll hand you off to our host for this discussion, Susan Minio. Let's start with the big picture. El Niño is not a new phenomenon, but the business context around this particular episode is different. Why? Because companies are already contending with elevated energy and fertilizer costs, trade and shipping uncertainty, geopolitical instability, and pressure on household purchasing power.

So the issue is not one shock in isolation. It's the way multiple shocks can reinforce each other. And with that in mind, let's begin with the global framing. Justin, our research describes a potential super El Niño as a material downside risk to the global economy, mainly through a supply-side shock.

Super El Niño: How Weather Shocks Ripple Through the Global Economy

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Super El Niño: How Weather Shocks Ripple Through the Global Economy

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.