Friday 10th July 2026 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. All is not so rosy in China despite the official figures showing continued strong growth. ‘It’s not as becalmed and orderly as the government would have us believe’, says George Magnus. George is an independent economist and a research associate at the China centre at Oxford University and at the school of Oriental and African studies in London. He was previously chief economist at UBS and wrote ‘Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy’. He joins Phil to talk about the unreliability of China’s growth data, in particular how the targeted high growth industries, supported by government investment, are overshadowing the broader economy, where wages are low, unemployment is high and growth is at a crawl. Meanwhile government debt is growing. How sustainable is this path and what does it mean for exporters deliver resources to China? ‘Hedging your future business risks might be a good thing,’ says George. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Weekend Edition: The ticking China timebomb

NAB Morning Call

China's economy is growing, but there's a big difference between the export growth and the struggling domestic economy. And how long can those two scenarios coexist before you see a broader base slowdown? Which might be of interest if, I don't know, you happen to rely on exporting a lot of resources to them, for example. That's this week. The Morning Call from NAB with Phil Dobbie The Weekend Edition

Well, China is never out of the news for very long, is it? They seem to be giving the US a run for their money when it comes to advances in AI. They've sold a lot of EVs to many parts of the world, Australia included. They seem to have supported Iran buying their oil without upsetting Trump, at least publicly. And we've had that show of strength in the South Pacific this week, firing a nuclear capable long distance missile. I guess they were just checking whether they work or not.

So let's look at what's really happening in China now with George Magnus. He is an independent economist and a research associate at the China Center at Oxford University and the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. He was previously chief economist at UBS. He's also the author of Red Flags, Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy.

So, George, is it? I mean, the Chinese economy seems to be doing really well, better than anyone else perhaps, because it's been less influenced by energy disruptions. It's certainly got the tick from the World Bank this last week in its China economic update. A real GDP growth of 5% year on year in Q1 is what they're saying. In fact, you know, they seem to spend a lot of time, don't they, growing up 5%.

Weekend Edition: The ticking China timebomb

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Weekend Edition: The ticking China timebomb

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.