In this episode of The Inflation Brief, Laura Rosner-Warburton is joined by Omair Sharif to break down the July CPI report and what the latest data signal for the inflation outlook. They discuss the persistence of core goods inflation, the evolving impact of tariffs, and how AI-related demand and other supply pressures are complicating the inflation picture. Laura and Omair also explore factors that could keep inflation in check, including stable auto prices, moderating wage growth, and a potential slowdown in consumer demand. Finally, they look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s September meeting and the key August inflation, employment, and spending data that could shape the path for monetary policy.<br>NABE is the premier professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. Since 1959, NABE has attracted the most prominent figures in economics, business, and academia to its membership with highly-regarded conferences, educational and career development offerings, industry surveys, and its unrivaled networking opportunities. Past presidents of NABE include former Chairman of the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System, Alan Greenspan, several former Federal Reserve Governors, and other senior business leaders.

The Inflation Brief | August 2026

ECON-versations with NABE

Hello and welcome to another episode of The Inflation Brief, part of ECON-versations with NABE. I'm Laura Rosner-Warbritton, Senior Economist and Founding Partner of Macro Policy Perspectives. My co-host, Greg Daco, is out this week, and in his place, I have a very special guest, Omer Cherie, Founder of Inflation Insights and Celebrity Inflation Forecaster. I've known Omer for a long time, and it is always a pleasure to talk inflation with him.

Omer and I live and breathe the details, but we'll keep today's discussion as high level as possible. So welcome, Omer. Hey, Laura. Thanks for having me, and I appreciate that warm introduction. So I want to talk or start with just the July inflation report, particularly the CPI. So I'll start with just headline. Headline rose 0.07 percent month-on-month seasonally adjusted in July.

That was a rebound after a 0.42 percent decline in June. About two-thirds of that rebound was driven by a smaller decline in energy prices compared to June. Annual inflation, headline inflation, did moderate to 3.36 percent year-over-year from 3.53 percent year-over-year. And we're now about 80 basis points below the 4.2 percent year-over-year peak in May.

So, Omer, why don't you give us, you know, the gist of what happened with core CPI in July? Sure. Thanks. So the core obviously rebounded to about a, you know, 0.21, 0.22 reading in July after we had a very unusual decline in June of around minus 0.02. Just for very quick context, that we've had the seasonally adjusted monthly core reading since early 1957.

And it has only been negative in 13 out of 834 readings. And three of those were actually March through May of 2020. So it is an extremely, extremely rare thing for the core to be negative.

The Inflation Brief | August 2026

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

The Inflation Brief | August 2026

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.