Pacific spot rates are holding flat while futures signal the peak may already be over, and Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd just made a move that could mark the beginning of a Red Sea normalization after two and a half years of disruption. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why Asia-USWC rates are flatlining around $5,200 while the futures curve still points sharply lower, and what that means for the rest of July The Gemini alliance&#x27;s AE15 service switching back to Suez routing and what it signals about carrier confidence in Red Sea stability Panama Canal draft restrictions tightening through August as El Niño risk grows, and what history says about the ceiling on disruption Maersk&#x27;s upward earnings revision and why it says more about Maersk&#x27;s earlier pessimism than the overall market USMCA uncertainty and what a US pullback could mean for deeply intertwined North American supply chains EU shipping emissions data: container vessels down 6.7% per TEU year over year, even as total emissions remain elevated versus 2023 due to Red Sea rerouting Subscribe to weekly episode highlights delivered to your inbox.

Pacific Peak or Phantom Spike? And the Return to Suez Begins.

Supply Chain Secrets

You're now listening to the Supply Chain Secrets Podcast, the ultimate insider's guide for all things ocean shipping. Brought to you by Kyshex, helping you deliver through volatility. Hello, everyone. Good morning. You're listening to the Supply Chain Secrets Podcast. I'm your co-host, Caroline, and with me is Lars Jensen. Lars, how's it going?

Going absolutely great. I'm sitting here in sunny Belgium, day what seven now, of my Syncrum Sally Voyage. Just having an orecrow getting to Waterloo, the place where Napoleon lost to the Brits a bit over 200 years ago. A little historical trip. Nice. I'm a little jealous that you're sitting outside. It looks really lovely. Maybe I should take the recording out on the patio.

All right, let's get started talking about the latest on NYFI rates. Let me share my screen here. So let's kick off starting with Asia to U.S. West Coast. What are the rates looking like this week compared to last week? Yeah, we're beginning to see an interesting pattern unfold here because if you look at the rates, they're basically flat-lined. So we are basically at the same level, around $5,200 per 40-foot. That's unchanged.

But what indeed has changed significantly is the rate level for the futures. Because for the futures, we see a significant jump upwards. Now, when I say futures here, I mean for the July contract. So that is actually for the month we are looking at. And on that one, we saw a jump by $700 up to $4,300.

But, and there is a buck to this, even though the futures rate jumped upwards, the market is still in backwardation, which means that the future rates ahead of us are significantly below where we are right now.

Pacific Peak or Phantom Spike? And the Return to Suez Begins.

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Pacific Peak or Phantom Spike? And the Return to Suez Begins.

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.