PMI in Focus: High Frequency Signals for an Uncertain Business Environment
In this episode of The Decisive, host Paul Smith is joined by senior economists Andrew Harker and Phil Smith to discuss the latest signals from the global Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data and what they reveal about the direction of the world economy.
The conversation revisits key themes from the previous PMI episode, including stockpiling, uncertainty, supply chain disruption and inflation risks linked to the tensions in the Middle East and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The economists explain how recent PMI data suggest some easing in inflation pressures and uncertainty, although both remain elevated compared with historical norms.
The episode also explores why high-frequency PMI data can be especially valuable during periods of economic volatility, helping businesses, policymakers and forecasters assess turning points before slower-moving official data becomes available. Paul discusses how PMI signals can be combined with broader macroeconomic projections to provide a clearer view of both near-term conditions and longer-term trends.
Other topics include the outlook for the eurozone economy, global export conditions, the continued impact of tariffs, and the divergence between weaker PMI export readings and stronger official export data driven in part by AI-related demand. Phil and Andrew highlight how the AI boom is showing up in semiconductor prices, manufacturing performance and capital expenditure intentions, particularly in the US.
The episode closes with a look ahead to future PMI research on AI adoption and its impact on the workforce. This is the final episode before the summer break, with The Decisive returning in August for more insights and analysis.
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
PMI data and commentary
Global Economic Outlook: July 2026
Click here to learn how the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the World Economic Service (WES) help corporate planners interpret shifting global growth signals
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Middle East war
Policy rate prospects
Credits:
Host: Paul Smith
Guests: Andrew Harker, Phil Smith
Produced By: Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
The conversation revisits key themes from the previous PMI episode, including stockpiling, uncertainty, supply chain disruption and inflation risks linked to the tensions in the Middle East and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The economists explain how recent PMI data suggest some easing in inflation pressures and uncertainty, although both remain elevated compared with historical norms.
The episode also explores why high-frequency PMI data can be especially valuable during periods of economic volatility, helping businesses, policymakers and forecasters assess turning points before slower-moving official data becomes available. Paul discusses how PMI signals can be combined with broader macroeconomic projections to provide a clearer view of both near-term conditions and longer-term trends.
Other topics include the outlook for the eurozone economy, global export conditions, the continued impact of tariffs, and the divergence between weaker PMI export readings and stronger official export data driven in part by AI-related demand. Phil and Andrew highlight how the AI boom is showing up in semiconductor prices, manufacturing performance and capital expenditure intentions, particularly in the US.
The episode closes with a look ahead to future PMI research on AI adoption and its impact on the workforce. This is the final episode before the summer break, with The Decisive returning in August for more insights and analysis.
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
PMI data and commentary
Global Economic Outlook: July 2026
Click here to learn how the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the World Economic Service (WES) help corporate planners interpret shifting global growth signals
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Middle East war
Policy rate prospects
Credits:
Host: Paul Smith
Guests: Andrew Harker, Phil Smith
Produced By: Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
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