SpaceX Beat the Quarter. Shorts Await the Unlock.
SpaceX broke to new lows this week and the shorts aren't going anywhere before Thursday's pre-IPO lockup expiry. S3's data told the story before the tape did: the highest short interest as a percentage of float in the Magnificent 8, and roughly $9 billion in short-seller profits — S3 numbers Elon Musk responded to on X.com!
Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners founder & CEO Bob Sloan break down the week's biggest market stories using S3's proprietary positioning data — showing where institutional investors are actually leaning.
This week: Situational Awareness dropped 67% in a month after a massive two-year run — and the fund's letter pointed at short sellers. S3's data shows short interest across the long book was flat to falling, with convert hedging — not directional bets — doing representing a significant amount of the short book. Plus: the details lock-up overhang hanging over SpaceX, shipping shorts signal no peace priced into Hormuz or the Red Sea, and New York's gambling suit against Kalshi.
For more information about the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners.com
00:00 — S3's banner week: the SpaceX data heard around the Street — and Bob's NY Post op-ed on New York vs. Cleveland
03:20 — SpaceX (SPCX): new lows, shorts in control — the Mag 8's highest short % of float and ~$9B in short profits
08:45 — Situational Awareness: down 67% in a month — did short sellers really take the fund out? The data says no
14:57 — Margin calls, price discovery, and Ken Griffin's cleanup crew.
17:55 — El-Sayed's one-point Michigan shock: Fetterman watch, Van Jones' "Blockbuster vs. Netflix," and why the prediction markets overshot
23:50 — Silicon Valley vs. Wall Street: the story behind the Situational Awareness blowup
26:06 — New York sues Kalshi: bucket shops, court precedent, and 150 years of the gambling-vs.-speculation fight
32:42 — SpaceX's $18B CapEx that spooked the market
35:09 — In dollar terms, SpaceX short interest now tops Tesla — inside the short-seller mindset
36:53 — The geopolitical tell: betting on peace means shorting shipping — and nobody is
38:08 — Trump's war dilemma: the JD Vance faction, the generals, and the midterm clock
41:57 — The risk the market isn't pricing: political violence — Weimar parallels, the horseshoe, and the "normies"
49:16 — Closing thoughts: Charlie's message to New York's business leaders
Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners founder & CEO Bob Sloan break down the week's biggest market stories using S3's proprietary positioning data — showing where institutional investors are actually leaning.
This week: Situational Awareness dropped 67% in a month after a massive two-year run — and the fund's letter pointed at short sellers. S3's data shows short interest across the long book was flat to falling, with convert hedging — not directional bets — doing representing a significant amount of the short book. Plus: the details lock-up overhang hanging over SpaceX, shipping shorts signal no peace priced into Hormuz or the Red Sea, and New York's gambling suit against Kalshi.
For more information about the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners.com
00:00 — S3's banner week: the SpaceX data heard around the Street — and Bob's NY Post op-ed on New York vs. Cleveland
03:20 — SpaceX (SPCX): new lows, shorts in control — the Mag 8's highest short % of float and ~$9B in short profits
08:45 — Situational Awareness: down 67% in a month — did short sellers really take the fund out? The data says no
14:57 — Margin calls, price discovery, and Ken Griffin's cleanup crew.
17:55 — El-Sayed's one-point Michigan shock: Fetterman watch, Van Jones' "Blockbuster vs. Netflix," and why the prediction markets overshot
23:50 — Silicon Valley vs. Wall Street: the story behind the Situational Awareness blowup
26:06 — New York sues Kalshi: bucket shops, court precedent, and 150 years of the gambling-vs.-speculation fight
32:42 — SpaceX's $18B CapEx that spooked the market
35:09 — In dollar terms, SpaceX short interest now tops Tesla — inside the short-seller mindset
36:53 — The geopolitical tell: betting on peace means shorting shipping — and nobody is
38:08 — Trump's war dilemma: the JD Vance faction, the generals, and the midterm clock
41:57 — The risk the market isn't pricing: political violence — Weimar parallels, the horseshoe, and the "normies"
49:16 — Closing thoughts: Charlie's message to New York's business leaders
Loading content...
Read the full transcript
Matterfact has every podcast on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: 700K+ channels, 120M+ episodes.
The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.
Matterfact turns the conversations your coverage is already having into a searchable, citable record — across every episode, not just this one.