Friday 19th June 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Vessels have begun navigating the Strait of Hormuz following the formal signing of the U.S.-Iran MoU, with Brent crude at three-month lows near $80 a barrel. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this is as low as we can expect it to go for now, at least until a more definitive peace emerges. Also, Ray explains why the Aussie dollar is holding its own against a surging U.S. dollar and why the Bank of England hold – and future holds – might have something to do with the &quot;Maradona theory&quot; of monetary policy. They had to get soccer in there somehow. All covered off before the need for a refreshment break. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Big sail on, all ships must go

NAB Morning Call

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** NAB Morning Call

## Participants

- **Phil Dobbie** (NAB)
- **Ray Attrill** (NAB)

## Transcript

They are setting sail on the Strait of Hormuz, ships already going through apparently, the deal is signed, well the memorandum of understanding anyway, maybe they'll eventually reach something like the Iran nuclear deal. Meanwhile, power markets responding to that, plus the Fed one day on, and we've also had the Bank of England as well, and Britain's by-election for Prime Minister. The results very soon, and a relatively quiet end to what's been a very busy week. It's Friday, it's the 19th of June, 2026. It's the Morning Call from NAB. Good morning.

Well, the US dollar rising again, it's up 0.7% on the DXY, up to 100.8 now, the strongest for more than a year, but the Aussie is holding its own, it's marginally up. The falls have been in the yen down 0.5%, and the euro losing a third of 1%, the Korean won is down 1.7%, and oil is down, but not by much, 0.6% lower for WTI. Brent is only marginally down, it has been lower, but it's still just below 80 a barrel.

6.5% fall in silver though, and a 3% fall in gold, and shares back on the rise. 1.5% higher for the NASDAQ, 1% for the S&P, 1% down for the FTSE 100, and 0.4% up for the Eurostoxx 50, the DAX, and the Cat Caron. 10-year Treasury yields are down 5 basis points to 4.44%, very small moves for European bonds, though Aussie 10 years at 4.7% yesterday, up on that on Futures this morning.

And here comes NAB's Ray Atrell on the last day of the week, a busy week. And Ray, the deal is done, it's all signed, we don't have to wait for today, it's already been done. The US naval blockade has been lifted, Iran's Supreme Leader says America made the deal out of desperation. He said he didn't agree with it, but he's had assurances from the Iranian president that it's all good. I'm sure Donald Trump sees it slightly differently from that, but there's calm for now, anyway, it looks like.

And when it comes to prices, well, oil, it looks like it's found a new resting place. It's down to three-month lows, but these aren't big falls, it got down to 76.50 for Brent, now it's back up around 80. So the market seems to be set on that figure, doesn't it? Yeah, it does. Good morning, Phil. And yeah, interesting listening to the comments from Iran. And the friend of this podcast, Phil Suttle, in his comments yesterday, saying effectively that the MOA sort of confirms Iran's victory, basically.

And the best case scenario is that we get back to the relationship that we had in 2016 before President Trump pulled the plug, but with lots of bells and whistles in favour of Iran. So that does seem to be the way that many observers are judging the MOA. But, you know, the fact is that oil prices have come off, not a lot of movements overnight, but, you know, and certainly the view of a lot of people that I've been listening to

and talking to inside and outside will suggest that, you know, if oil d...

Big sail on, all ships must go

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

Big sail on, all ships must go

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.