Should we feel good about the trajectory of clean energy post-Trump?
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The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) established substantial tax credits for wind and solar power. Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) eliminated those tax credits. How much damage did that do to the overall trajectory of clean energy in the post-Trump world? A new research commentary argues that the damage was less than many had feared and that the road forward for clean energy is less about restoring those credits than about easing the permitting and interconnection constraints inhibiting renewable energy. Today I talk with author Lily Bermel about the modeling her commentary is based on and the somewhat controversial conclusions she draws from it.
Chapters:
00:00 The IRA, the OBBBA, and the case for optimism
03:25 OBBBA - Why Bermel ran the analysis
05:50 The headline numbers: 74, 71, 67
08:07 Decomposing clean: solar and batteries hold, wind takes the hit
12:14 The lag analysis, and the 'glass half full' perspective
15:27 2.8 gigatons, and losses you can't get back
18:01 The third scenario, and Trump I versus Trump II
21:49 What the model leaves out: manufacturing, LPO, loans
23:07 Interior's permitting campaign against wind and solar
27:22 The demand surge and behind-the-meter gas
32:15 Nuclear restarts, geothermal, and clean firm
35:31 Booms, busts, and the electrification wave
42:22Transmission, interconnection, and the ceiling
46:41 Tax credits versus permitting reform
51:46 Durability, polarization, and preemptive surrender
60:01 Can enough storage make renewables firm?
66:48 Grid utilization versus building new grid
70:52 Final reflections: 2021, and what Bermel would do with a trifecta
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) established substantial tax credits for wind and solar power. Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) eliminated those tax credits. How much damage did that do to the overall trajectory of clean energy in the post-Trump world? A new research commentary argues that the damage was less than many had feared and that the road forward for clean energy is less about restoring those credits than about easing the permitting and interconnection constraints inhibiting renewable energy. Today I talk with author Lily Bermel about the modeling her commentary is based on and the somewhat controversial conclusions she draws from it.
Chapters:
00:00 The IRA, the OBBBA, and the case for optimism
03:25 OBBBA - Why Bermel ran the analysis
05:50 The headline numbers: 74, 71, 67
08:07 Decomposing clean: solar and batteries hold, wind takes the hit
12:14 The lag analysis, and the 'glass half full' perspective
15:27 2.8 gigatons, and losses you can't get back
18:01 The third scenario, and Trump I versus Trump II
21:49 What the model leaves out: manufacturing, LPO, loans
23:07 Interior's permitting campaign against wind and solar
27:22 The demand surge and behind-the-meter gas
32:15 Nuclear restarts, geothermal, and clean firm
35:31 Booms, busts, and the electrification wave
42:22Transmission, interconnection, and the ceiling
46:41 Tax credits versus permitting reform
51:46 Durability, polarization, and preemptive surrender
60:01 Can enough storage make renewables firm?
66:48 Grid utilization versus building new grid
70:52 Final reflections: 2021, and what Bermel would do with a trifecta
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