Today, a look at risk sentiment in full swing after a successful SpaceX IPO on Friday and a stronger sense that the Iran war ceasefire may last long enough for shipping lanes to fully open in the Hormuz Strait, at least for a time. But while speculative energy remains high in equities, the broader macro picture is subdued, with little FX and rates volatility even as the new Kevin Warsh Fed marks the biggest shift at the Fed in a generation. This and much more, including the BoJ up tonight, on today&#x27;s pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy Links John&#x27;s The FX Trader piece from today, discussing the technical situation in EURUSD and previewing the seven G-10 central bank meetings this week. A 20-minute CNBC interview with SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell, where she talks a good game and even delivers the outlook for orbiting data centers with a straight face. FT discusses the many forced buyers of SpaceX as the company has been fast tracked to join many major stock indices, the members of which enjoy passive inflows. The Wall Street Journal with the basic, but important discussion of how Kevin Warsh is set to alter the Fed&#x27;s communication strategy (an important first step, but as emphasized on the podcast - there are much bigger questions afoot down the line.) About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

FOMO in equities, ho-hum in macro even as new Fed era begins this week.

Saxo Market Call

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Saxo Market Call

## Participants

- **John J. Hardy** (SaxoStrats)

## Transcript

Welcome to the Saxo Market Call. Before we get started, it's important we emphasize that the views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All information provided is for educational and entertainment purposes only.

Hey everyone, it is Monday, 15th of June, 2026, and we are now post-SpaceX IPO. We have big hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire extending crushing oil prices and with that successful SpaceX IPO launch. And for you Sherlock Holmes sleuths out there, that was the issue I was not able to discuss last week as Saxo was participating in offering its shares in the IPO.

So, and we were limited on our coverage ability. So, yeah, this one is, it came off. There were some worries by the worry warts out there, and you can often count me among those in the worry wart category. But, you know, the liquidity required, the size of the ask from retail participation was absolutely massive relative to any other precedent set by an IPO. And this one was pulled off. There was, you know, it came off, of course, the 135 IPO price was no problem.

Traded what was north of 170 and settled on the day around 160 market cap at over $2 trillion. And it's up another 5%, which means that now Elon Musk is having a daily P&L with his 40 plus percent ownership of SpaceX of around 50 billion.

A very theoretical P&L, because as we know, very limited float here. And what is the actual size of, you know, as insiders, you know, there will be a tsunami of those that are in post lockup in coming months. But in the meantime, there's been a lot of interest, of course, from retail, but also from potentially hedge funds and others who are looking at the anticipated passive flows that this company will enjoy.

And bridging that IPO price to when it starts getting its weighting in the, of course, the NASDAQ 100. We've talked about the before, the fast track rules that were sort of all created to help the SpaceX be listed on the NASDAQ rather than on the New York Stock Exchange. FTSE has also changed its fast tracking rules, Russell, and even MSCI to a degree.

The weighting will not be the full $2 trillion. In the case of the NASDAQ 100, it'll be three times the weighting of the actual float. So while 4% is only a valuation at that IPO price, at least, what was it, $75 billion. And now a bit more, of course, with the 20% plus appreciation of those shares, it will not be weighted at $2 trillion or $75 billion. It'll be weighted at three times that, whatever the value of that current float is.

And I guess that'll change and evolve as the float increases. But so yeah, we have this successful IPO. I think that has really boosted risk sentiment. And we're seeing an attempt pretty soon on the highs. We saw the Russell 2000 actually breaching the highs already on Friday, up 0.8%. Ver...

FOMO in equities, ho-hum in macro even as new Fed era begins this week.

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

FOMO in equities, ho-hum in macro even as new Fed era begins this week.

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.