Andrew and Tom discuss retail sales falling 0.6% month-over-month against an expected 0.1% gain, with the prior month also revised lower, driving the market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike this year down to 27% from near-certainty just two weeks ago, a weak 30-year Treasury auction that priced at 5.216%, the highest since 2001, with bonds continuing to decouple from cooling inflation and labor data, Trump announcing 100% tariffs on unmanned drones in a further push to decouple supply chains from China, and Cobb County&#x27;s 5-2 vote greenlighting the Powers Ferry data center despite local opposition. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST: http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing Please see disclosures: https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Weak Retail Sales Send Rate Hike Odds Crashing to 27% | August 14, 2026 – Morning Market Briefing

The Morning Market Briefing

Hey everybody, welcome to the Morning Market Briefing. It's Friday, August 14, 2026. Hicks, how we doing on the sound? Looks like we're good to go. Ben's out today, so just Tom and I. We're going to have a fun call today with a little light on the notes, but we're going to fill some time.

Yeah, Ben being out, usually he does all the prep work for the call. Andrew and I do little of that. If Ben's not here, then TK does it, but little to my knowledge, I walk around the corner and ask TK where the notes are, also out today. Also out, yeah. I did not realize that young Thomas and Ben were on vacation together, but apparently they are. So we got a 30-year auction that went off yesterday. Pretty weak.

Man. I mean, the expectation was that it was going to be bad, and it was bad. We just continue to see the real-world data decouple from the bond market. And typically, I would say the smart money is in bonds. I've used that aggressively over my career. But is it? But is it now?

I just don't feel that that's the case right now. But the auction went off at a five-spot 216, which is a four-basis-point tail, which is a lot of tail for a 30-year bond auction. Because once you get up into that kind of duration, that's a significant difference in price. And that was below the when issued. So the idea was they were going to try and get it off more expensive than that.

Weak Retail Sales Send Rate Hike Odds Crashing to 27% | August 14, 2026 – Morning Market Briefing

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Weak Retail Sales Send Rate Hike Odds Crashing to 27% | August 14, 2026 – Morning Market Briefing

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.