Inflation and payroll growth trends fluctuated dramatically during the first six months of 2026, causing concerns about the direction of the U.S. economy and how the Federal Reserve will react. Barron&#x27;s Senior Economics Writer Megan Leonhardt speaks with Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, about the economic trends expected as we enter the second half of 2026 and what investors should watch for next.<br><br>Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What's Ahead for the U.S. Economy?

Barron's Live

Welcome to Barron's Live, our weekly live call and podcast. I'm Megan Lenhart, Senior Economics Writer at Barrons. Thanks so much for joining today's call to learn more about what's moving markets and companies and the economy. I'm joined today by Stephen Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at T.S. Lombard. Stephen, thanks so much for joining Barron's Live. Glad to have you on today's call. Glad to be had.

So let's start, I think, with the most recent Federal Reserve decision. Obviously, we had rates stay unchanged last week. And heading into the meeting, it was kind of an interesting period. You know, policymakers had a fairly compelling case to keep rates steady. We have a fairly healthy economy, stable employment, cooler inflation readings in June.

So why was there so much uncertainty about what was going to happen for policymakers in the July meeting? Was it all driven by the lack of forward guidance that we've gotten under Chairman Warsh?

You know, it's a terrific question, obviously, because we're sitting here. But I would say that he is. He came in in his first press conference. Right. And he made this whole fist pounding on the table. You know, we're not going to let this stand. Right. And all the two percenters out there are saying, listen, we haven't been at two percent since sometime in 2019.

Whatever it is. And we see growth and the growth in the economy should at some point turn into inflation. Right. So they buy into what Warsh was selling. Right. And I think that's the key point, the selling aspect of it. I never felt and I wrote as much after the first meeting. I have my my own moniker for him is tough guy.

What's Ahead for the U.S. Economy?

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

What's Ahead for the U.S. Economy?

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.