Global prices for refined products have remained elevated for a number of reasons, with the state of Russia’s refining sector a major, if sometimes overlooked, factor. Today, we look at the conditions in Russia, how trade flows have shifted, and what a post-war recovery might look like.

Rock Bottom – Declining Russian Refinery Output Pushing Global Products Prices Higher, Shifting Trade Flows

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Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Rock Bottom, Declining Russian Refinery Output Pushing Global Products Prices Higher, Shifting Trade Flows. Published by Jason Lindquist. Global prices for refined products like gasoline and diesel have remained elevated this year for a number of reasons, most notably the prolonged disruption to normal vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the war-related damage to refineries across the Persian Gulf.

But while the U.S.-Iran war may have attracted much of the spotlight, the state of Russia's refining sector may be at least as much of a contributing factor. In today's RBN blog, we look at why the deteriorating conditions in Russia may be the biggest disruptor to refined product prices globally, how trade flows for gasoline and diesel have rapidly shifted in recent months, and what a post-Ukraine war recovery in Russian refining capacity might look like.

As we noted recently in For the Love of Money, the run-up in refined product prices has been sustained this summer even though crude oil prices have retreated from their 2026 highs set just a few months ago, resulting in skyrocketing crack spreads. We'll discuss the 3-2-1 crack spread and other important refining metrics during our upcoming School of Energy. Fundamentals, set for September 9-10 in Houston.

Rock Bottom – Declining Russian Refinery Output Pushing Global Products Prices Higher, Shifting Trade Flows

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Rock Bottom – Declining Russian Refinery Output Pushing Global Products Prices Higher, Shifting Trade Flows

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.