Thursday 25th June 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil prices are tumbling, with Brent crude hitting a fresh low near $73 a barrel,, taking significant pressure off global inflation hedges and pushing 10 year Treasury yields down 9 basis points. Phil talks to NAB’s Sally Auld look at how this commodity slide is reshaping central bank expectations, highlighted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Squawk Box interview where he likened the current tech-driven productivity wave to Alan Greenspan’s 1997 &quot;one tap on the brakes&quot; template, suggesting the Fed may only need one more rate hike, together with his dislike of the Fed&#x27;s dot plot altogether. Closer to home, attention wraps firmly around yesterday’s Australian CPI print, which cooled on the headline thanks to falling pump prices; however, Sally flags that a peek under the hood reveals a stickier story, with trimmed-mean inflation tracking at 3.6% as local homebuilders and restaurants pass mounting material and input costs on to consumers. Aussie employment data will be watched keenly to see whether last month’s rise in the unemployment rate was a one-off, but isn’t expected to change the RBA’s outlook for interest rates. On that, ‘they’re done’ says Sally. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Oil slides through the Strait, but underlying Aussie CPI is sticky

NAB Morning Call

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** NAB Morning Call

## Participants

- **Phil Dobbie** (None)
- **Sally Old** (NAB)

## Transcript

Oil falling much further today, the lowdown on yesterday's Australian CPI as well. The US Treasury Secretary suggests just one hike from the Fed, not that it's his call. And Aussie employment data today, it's Thursday, it's the 25th of June, 2026. This is the Morning Call from NAB. Good morning.

Well, the US dollar has gained a bit more ground up over 101.6 on the DXY, but the Aussie down another 0.4%, down to 68.9 US cents out of the majors. Only the South Korean one has fallen further. Why? Well, oil has fallen a lot further, down 4.5% for WTI and 5% lower for Brent, down almost to 73 a barrel now.

Falls in stocks, though. The Nasdaq down another 0.8%, a quarter percent lower for the S&P. But they have been up for most of the session. This is sort of like a turn down towards the end of the session. The Eurostox 50 closed down a quarter percent, 0.6% lower for the DAX, but a 0.3% lift in the FTSE 100. In the UK, look, Andy Burnham's making a difference already.

And big falls in bond yields, 10-year Treasuries down 9, basis points down 7 in the UK, 5 in Germany and France. And Aussie 10 years were at 4.76% yesterday, just one basis points lower overnight on futures. And now Sally Old joins me today here in Sydney. We'll talk about Australian CPI, obviously, in a moment and the employment numbers due today. But first of all, Sally, look at those oil prices.

Yeah, I know. It just keeps heading south. So overnight, another decent decline in the oil price and sort of sitting at the moment this morning with a 73 handle on it. So clearly, you know, even further, I guess, accelerating that sense that, you know, we don't have to worry so much about upside risks to inflation anymore from high energy prices.

And we also don't have to worry so much about downside risk to growth from a protracted period of high energy prices. So all in all, you know, markets seemingly, you know, very positive around, I guess, the fact that more oil is getting through the strait and really just not that worried about, you know, the fact that the so-called deal between the US and Iran, you know, might be at times.

It's not sticky, is it? Let's put it that way. I mean, Netanyahu has said he still wants troops in southern Lebanon. Iran wants to keep control of the strait and start charging, which is, you know, not going to be acceptable. It's still a whole nuclear thing to sort out. And the neighbouring Gulf states seem to be thinking that, you know, it's been too much has been given to Tehran. So nobody's happy with this deal. No, but the oil price keeps coming down. And so I guess that just reinforces that, you know, ultimately markets care probably a bit more about that second derivative.

Like as long as, you know, week by week, there are more ships and more oil getting through the strait, then that's sort of good enough. Is it going to be f...

Oil slides through the Strait, but underlying Aussie CPI is sticky

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

Oil slides through the Strait, but underlying Aussie CPI is sticky

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.