Wednesday 1st July 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Yen fell further again overnight, hitting another 40-year low, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s no indication of when and if there will be any further currency intervention. US equities push higher and oil falls lower as Iran news falls off the front pages and investors focus more on the fundamentals. The RBA minutes yesterday reiterated that conditions were ‘now probably somewhat restrictive’, but was that enough to change expectations for a cut? Meanwhile house price data out this morning shows a drop in house prices for Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra. Plus, the latest European inflation data, China’s PMIs, confidence and jobs data from the US, with US manufacturing ISM out today. The main event could be that Sintra closing panel, with Kevin Warsh joining Lagarde, Bailey and Macklem, but given his opposition to forward guidance what can he talk about? The weather? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Not so Zen about the Yen

NAB Morning Call

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** NAB Morning Call

## Participants

- **Phil Dobbie** (NAB)
- **Taylor Nugent** (NAB)

## Transcript

They are not feeling quite so Zen about the Yen in Japan. It reached another 40-year low overnight. So will we see some sort of currency intervention this week? And what's it going to do for Australian business? Meanwhile, oil falls below 70 for WTI because, well, you really have to go searching for any news on Iran. That's why. And the RBA minutes, how do they see the lay of the land? It is Wednesday, pinch and a punch. It's the 1st of July, 2026 is the morning call from NAB. Good morning.

And so US equities are pushing higher again today. It's at 1.3% for the NASDAQ, three quarters of 1% for the S&P. The Eurostox, 15, not wanting to be left out. It's up 1.5%. It's the same for the DAX. The US dollar has climbed and lost and is only a little up on yesterday now. The Aussie is stuck at 69.2 US cents, but another 0.4% fall in the yen. It got to 162.67 to the US dollar. So again, a four decade low.

10-year treasury yields are up four basis points. The same for UK gilts and up five in Italy. But most other places, the moves are relatively tame. Aussie 10 years fell two basis points yesterday to 4.72%. And oil has fallen a bit. WTI dropped 1.6% to below $70. Now officially in the 60s. Brent just below 73 with a 0.3% drop. So Taylor Nugent joins me today from NAB in Sydney.

So oil on its way down because, well, you really have to go searching for news stories about Iran now. So no news is good news, I guess. Yeah. Good morning, Phil. As you say, not too much to report on in the oil market this morning. And I think, yeah, what we did say was some headlines around, you know, the potential for talks towards a permanent solution, which I think was keeping the mood music reasonably positive.

Some reports around a renewed recovery in the amount of ships moving through, adding to that. And, you know, so I think the discussion in the oil market is now talking to, you know, we know that we've been kind of bridging through this supply gap with some levers that are being pulled. China importing less, US exporting more and a big rundown in inventories. And I think you've added on kind of a bit more Iranian oil supply to the market. Some supply, nothing like normal getting through.

But you've got those kind of other measures that were supporting supply still in place largely. And so I think that's kind of creating a bit of a shift in the near term supply dynamic for now. And the yen weaker again. And as we see the dollar climb, of course, that's only going to get worse. And we've got non-farm payouts at the end of the week. If there's an upside surprise on that, there's always the chance that that might happen, of course. Yeah. So I think that the yen is kind of continues to be interesting to watch. We had this kind of positive risk tone through markets.

And so I guess from that perspective, maybe it's not too surprising that t...

Not so Zen about the Yen

Transcript

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Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
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Not so Zen about the Yen

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.