This week, our global FX and EM strategists discuss the bullish risks for USD into the FOMC meeting, EM FX movers (ZAR, CLP, HUF), GBP valuations &amp; BoE, as well as key takeaways on cross-border M&amp;A flows in 1H’26. Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Anezka Christovova, Head of EMEA EM Local Markets Strategy Octavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 24 July 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5374884-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global FX: USD pre-Fed, EM movers, GBP & cross-border M&A

At Any Rate

[SPEAKER_A] Hello and welcome to JPMorgan's At Any Rate podcast. I'm Meera Chandan, Co-Head of FX Strategy at J.P. Morgan, joined today by several FX strategists, Patrick Locke from New York. We've got Octavia Popescu and Anezka Christovova from Paris and London respectively. And we're going to talk about a few things for next week. I guess as far as FX markets go, two main focal points. First is the resurgence in energy prices. And relatedly, we've seen a further hawkish repricing for several central banks, including the Fed. Now, last week we made the point that conviction in the more constructive dollar view had come off. The only factor that had kept us committed really to the view was the extent of Fed hawkishness that we were seeing. For example, the 2-week change in the Fed's Hawk Dove Score Index, our NLP-based models, was the largest since 2022, and that was giving us one clear signal as far as the dollar is concerned. And that was really the only reason to stick with it. Now needless to say, this backdrop around higher energy prices has sort of added fuel to the fire and really has ended up in a manner that's been more supportive for the dollar. Now how long this continues, it's hard to say. The energy price story, what we do know is that we have prior pain thresholds for the US administration. Our energy strategists are basically making the point that if disruptions continue for another month, then the average gasoline prices in the US is likely to rebound to $4.20. If that goes up to 2 months, then the prices could go back to $4.50.

Global FX: USD pre-Fed, EM movers, GBP & cross-border M&A

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Global FX: USD pre-Fed, EM movers, GBP & cross-border M&A

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.