In this episode of The Brainstorm, Brett, Sam, and Nick explore the future of prediction markets, cutting-edge medical AI, and the surprising power of global events to reshape financialization. You’ll discover how the World Cup has catapulted prediction markets into the spotlight, with volume trending towards over $100 billion annualized. We also uncover a revolutionary medical scanning device that promises to do high-definition ultrasound in a fraction of the cost and time, and break down the implications of accessible, frequent scans—tracking disease progression and enabling personalized health insights—while sparking debate on regulations, data privacy, and consumer bioscience. Key Points From This Episode: Prediction markets are seeing a huge surge in volume during the World Cup, driven partly by sports-betting restrictions in the U. S. and by new users exploring adjacent markets like crypto and Key Performance Indicators (KPI)/event-based contracts. Kalshi appears to be benefiting more than Polymarket in the current wave, with stronger U. S.-market exposure and regulatory positioning, while Polymarket’s share has fallen and it’s facing trust/marketing scrutiny. Midjourney’s new medical scanning device sparked excitement and controversy because it could make frequent, lower-cost scans possible, potentially improving early detection and longitudinal health data, but also raising concerns about ambiguous findings and the tension between biohacking and traditional medical science. If you know ARK, you know we focus on long-term innovation. But that doesn’t mean we ignore breaking news. Every day, we debate the latest developments in tech and markets. Now, we’re bringing those conversations to you in “The Brainstorm,” a co-production from ARK, WOLF, and Public. Tune in weekly for our quick takes on what’s shaping innovation right now. Learn more about WOLF: https://wolf.financial Learn more about Public: https://public.com/ Disclosure: http://arkinv.st/39rzF94

Some Of The Smartest World Cup Bets Weren't In Sportsbooks | The Brainstorm 137

FYI - For Your Innovation

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** FYI - For Your Innovation

## Participants

- **Brett Winton** (ARK Invest)
- **Nick Grous** (ARK Invest)
- **Sam Korus** (ARK Invest)

## Transcript

Welcome to The Brainstorm. Today we're talking prediction market mania, or is it really just sports betting loophole mania? Nick, you'll let us know. And then Mid Journey coming out with a new medical scanning device. I think this was a surprise to a lot of people and sparked a lot of conversation about whether more data is good or dangerous, I would say, in the medical community. But Nick, first to you, World Cup going on. Lots of sports betting.

Sports betting happening. Lots of predictioning happening in the markets. Can you kind of break it down for us? What's happening? And if there's been any updates in the Kalshi versus Polymarket duopoly here? Yeah, so to start on the World Cup, this has been a huge tailwind for the prediction market space. And just to set the stage, in the US, prediction markets available in all 50 states. Sports betting not

available in all 50 states. Notable holdouts, California, Texas make a huge portion of the population. They don't have access to legal online sports betting. So yes, there is definitely some arbitrage at play. But to look at the numbers, you're seeing an explosion in the volume. So total notional volume pre-World Cup was at around 7.1 billion on a weekly basis. Since the opening week, the opening week was around 10 billion. So up 40%

from that pre-World Cup figure. And then this last week, the first full week of the World Cup, it was up to 13.1 billion on a weekly basis. So annualizing well north of 100 billion dollars on a yearly basis.

Up 84% since the start of the World Cup. So definitely seeing huge product demand for this. And then also getting into these numbers, you can see that Kalshi is by far and away the biggest winner here. Their numbers alone on that June 15th, so the first full cup weekend, were up 117% from the pre-World Cup.

They did around $9 billion in notional volume just last week alone. And then the other main competitor here did have a strong week. It was up around 73% in Polymarket. But what's interesting is, you know, there have been a lot of new players to enter the prediction market space. And Polymarket, which once held essentially a monopoly, they were almost 100%, I think it was like 98% of the total volume,

is now actually on a weekly basis at one of its lowest points in terms of market share that it's ever been. So I think it's fallen all the way down to around 25-ish percent of the total market. So, you know, not great overall for Polymarket. But there was a, you know, Wall Street Journal article out there around Polymarket and some of the practices around their marketing

and, you know, how they handled influencers and some fake spending that, you know, is sowing some distrust between consumers and Polymarket. And they're trying to build out their U.S. presence, and it hasn't been g...

Some Of The Smartest World Cup Bets Weren't In Sportsbooks | The Brainstorm 137

Transcript

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Some Of The Smartest World Cup Bets Weren't In Sportsbooks | The Brainstorm 137

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.