In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Yuyun Zhan and Alicia García-Herrero sit down with Jonathan Fulton to interrogate some persistent assumptions about China&#x27;s role in the Middle East. From the China–Iran partnership to the Saudi–Iran rapprochement, they explore whether the conventional wisdom misreads a deeply complex region – overstating Chinese ambition, understating local agency and flattening a relationship that is transactional, rather than strategic. Relevant research: Fulton, J. (2025) ‘Present without impact? How the Middle East perceives China’s diplomatic engagement’, Issue Brief, Atlantic Council García-Herrero, A. (2026) &#x27;What the war in Iran means for China&#x27;, Analysis 06/2026, Bruegel This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox!

Reassessing China's role in the Middle East

The Sound of Economics

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**Podcast:** The Sound of Economics

## Transcript

Welcome to The Sound of Economics, the podcast series by Bruegel, the Brussels-based economic think tank. I am Yu Yunzhan, host of our monthly podcast, Chonghuamundis, that brings you recent updates about China's economy. As usual, I am with our senior fellow, Alicia Garcia Herrero. Hi, Alicia. How are you? Hello, Yu Yunzhan. Good to see you again, Alicia. We're also glad to have with us today Jonathan Fulton, a non-resident senior fellow for Atlantic Council's Middle East programs

and the Skycroft Middle East Security Initiative. Nice to meet you, Jonathan, and welcome to The Sound of Economics. Thanks, Yu Yun. Nice to meet you, and you too, Alicia. Thanks for joining us today. Since 28 February 2026, the U.S. and Israel have been at war with Iran, having launched strikes targeting military sites and assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Iran retaliated by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint, and has been attacking commercial ships attempting to transit without its approval. The U.S. has maintained a naval blockade since April 13th. Negotiations are being mediated by Pakistan with key issues including the Strait, Iran's nuclear program, sanctions, and a long-term peace agreement. This completely reshapes the China angle.

China depends heavily on Gulf and Iranian oil, and the Hormuz closure directly threatens that supply chain. It also puts Beijing in an extraordinarily awkward position diplomatically. Alicia, China is the world's largest oil importer, and a huge share of that supply runs through the Strait of Hormuz. This crisis has stress-tested that dependency in real time.

What do we learn about Beijing's actual vulnerability and its contingency options? Thank you, Yu Yunzhan, for the question. Yes, you know, when you look at kind of big figures, China is the largest importer of energy in the world, fossil fuels in particular. You know, the immediate thing you would say, okay, China is very dependent, and, you know, this is going to be a huge shock. But, you know, if we look at that in detail, I would say every single Southeast Asian economy,

even Japan or South Korea, are more dependent than China on the Strait of Hormuz and on the Gulf. Beyond that, i.e. diversification of energy resources or oil, fossil fuels in particular, that China has been pushing forward for a long time, to the point that even with Russia, they've been very careful of not becoming too dependent. Yes. So, you know, it's like literally embedded in China's strategy.

But beyond that, of course, you know, you still see the still very relevant share of coal in the energy basket, or renewable for that matter. So, yes, China is hit. I mean, nobody can deny it, but not as much as you would just imagine by thinking, okay, this is the largest importer in the world. So China is more resilient than we think. That doesn't mean it's fully insulated. It's true t...

Reassessing China's role in the Middle East

Transcript

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Reassessing China's role in the Middle East

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.