This week, Chris Caplice is joined by Dr. Jason Miller, Professor of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business, for his fifth appearance on Freightvine. Chris and Jason break down why they believe the current truckload cycle began in December 2025, why it took a few months to confirm the shift, and why this expansion looks different from past freight cycles. In this conversation, they cover: Why this cycle appears to be supply-driven, not demand-driven What spot and contract rate spreads can tell us about market shifts How capacity exits, Class 8 orders, and routing guide failures are shaping the market Whether the AI boom can deliver real ROI or if the market is getting ahead of itself What Michigan’s logistics and supply chain work can tell us about manufacturing, food production, and trade If you’re trying to understand where truckload pricing, capacity, and freight demand may be headed next, this is a timely conversation with one of the industry’s sharpest data-driven voices. For previous episodes and to subscribe to our newsletter, visit: dat.com/podcast/freightvine Chapters 00:00 Introduction 02:55 Identifying the Current Truckload Cycle 04:16 Market Signals and Transition Points 05:53 Comparing Cycles: 2017-2018 vs. 2025 09:00 Supply vs. Demand Driven Cycles 12:15 Routing Guide Compliance and Market Dynamics 16:15 Spot vs. Contract Rates: Current Trends 20:38 Economic Factors Influencing Freight Rates 22:47 AI and Memory Chip Demand: Future Implications 26:10 The Future of AI and Profitability 27:23 Electricity Infrastructure and AI&#x27;s Role 29:03 The Cost of AI and Model Maintenance 31:28 AI&#x27;s Impact on Labor and Employment 34:04 AI in Academia and Content Creation 38:04 The Economics of AI and Cost Structures 45:33 Logistics and Supply Chain in Michigan 51:09 Freightvine Market Update

Jason Miller, MSU | The Capacity Driven TL Cycle and the ROI of AI

Freightvine

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Freightvine

## Participants

- **Chris Caplice** (DAT Freight and Analytics)
- **Jason Miller** (Michigan State University)

## Transcript

Hello and welcome to the Freightvine podcast, your source for all things freight transportation. I'm Chris Caplice, Chief Scientist at DAT Freight and Analytics, and today I'm joined by Jason Miller, Professor of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University's Eli Broad College of Business. This is Jason's fifth time on the Freightvine podcast. I last had him on about a year ago to discuss tariffs as they were impacting the market. This time I wanted to talk about the current truckload cycle.

We both agreed that it started in December 2025, but that it took a couple months really through the first quarter to make sure it wasn't a false start, like what we saw at the end of 24 beginning of 25. And Jason notes that this expansion is unique because it's supply driven and it's essentially a mirror image of that demand driven bull market that we saw in 2017, 2018. And he notes that while aggregate domain remains flat, we are seeing what he termed a feeding frenzy in specific sectors like data center construction.

Steel production, mainly due to the rapidly expanding DAT center networks, that ecosystem by hyperscalers. And sticking with the AI theme, we kind of turned the conversation from transportation to the trillion dollar question of AI's actual return on investment or ROI. Jason shared his skepticism regarding the current hype, discussed the high cost of compute, the issue of model drift, and why we haven't seen a true labor substitute in AI yet.

I am more of an optimist and think that the cost of AI will drop and that it is a long-term massive benefit to the workforce. But it's always great to debate these topics with Jason. He always comes with an opinion and with data. So that's always a great debate.

Whether you're navigating the routing guide failures that we're seeing now more frequently or trying to separate AI hope from hype, hopefully this episode gives you some data-driven clarity because that's what Jason always brings and me to understand where this current capacity-driven cycle is headed. Following my conversation with Jason, I will present the truckload market update. So let's get started. Hi, Jason. Welcome back to the Freightvine. Hey, thanks for having me back, Chris.

You're joining an esteemed crowd, Jason. You're my third, fifth timer. I've been doing, this is my 178th, 176th podcast. And you joined Bill Cassidy and Kevin's Wires five times. So I'm not going to send you a jacket, but I might send you a coffee mug. So we'll see how that goes. Hey, I'll take it, man. That's awesome. Yeah. So I wanted to talk back because, as you might know, that the truckload cycle has changed again.

And we're in another cycle that seemed to start. And I wanted to talk to you about that. And first question is, when do you think this cycle started? When do you ping...

Jason Miller, MSU | The Capacity Driven TL Cycle and the ROI of AI

Transcript

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Jason Miller, MSU | The Capacity Driven TL Cycle and the ROI of AI

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.