Recent;u, I made the case that retail media is far more than a tax on brands or a rounding error disguised as a marketing channel. I still firmly believe that. But believing in the opportunity doesn&#x27;t mean believing every retail media network will succeed. In this episode, I unpack a sobering reality facing the industry: while retail media continues to grow, the vast majority of that growth is flowing to a handful of dominant players. Drawing on a recent IAB white paper, I break down the six strategic paths available to commerce media networks, and explain why chasing scale may be the wrong goal for many retailers. From merchant-aligned media and experience-led commerce to coalition models and infrastructure plays, I explore the tough choices retail media leaders need to make before the market makes those choices for them. This episode is sponsored by Mirakl Ads Timeline [00:00] Why I can defend retail media&#x27;s future while still believing many retail media networks won&#x27;t survive. [01:07] The growth math behind retail media, plus why Amazon and Walmart continue to capture most of the upside. [02:45] The IAB&#x27;s warning to commerce media networks and the coming industry reckoning. [04:18] Path 1 and Path 2: Building a full-scale media platform versus running a lean, profitable media business. [06:15] Path 3: How merchant-aligned media is changing the conversation, with lessons from The Home Depot. [09:21] Path 4: Experience-led media and why creating memorable shopper experiences may be a competitive advantage. [10:15] Paths 5 and 6: Infrastructure providers, retail media coalitions, and why collaboration remains difficult in practice. Links &amp; Resources Read the IAB white paper: Building a More Competitive Commerce Media Ecosystem Read my related articles:How retail media could become &#x27;mid&#x27; Is Retail Media Actually Kinda &#x27;Mid&#x27;? PART 2 Dark Search, Broken Signals, and What Comes Next for Retail Media In Atlanta? Join the Commerce Media Happy Hour on Wednesday June 17! RSVP here Catch me at these Events I am sharing comedy skits on Instagram about retail media! Follow along: @retailmediabreakfastclub Subscribe to Retail Media Breakfast Club&#x27;s daily newsletter Follow Kiri Masters on LinkedIn

The Retail Media Reckoning: 6 Survival Strategies for Commerce Media Networks Before It’s Too Late

Retail Media Breakfast Club

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Retail Media Breakfast Club

## Participants

- **Kiri Masters** (Retail Media Breakfast Club)

## Transcript

Last month I wrote a piece for my column at The Drum defending retail media against the people who call it attacks on brands and a rounding error dressed up as a channel. And I stand by all of it. So it might read as a strange pivot to open this week by saying that a good chunk of the networks now in market are not going to make it. But both things can be true. Hear me out.

The dismisses of retail media build their case on two facts that are correct. Retail media is mostly Amazon. Retail media is mostly sponsored product ads, and therefore the rest doesn't matter. But it's that last part, the logical leap that the rest doesn't matter. That is the fallacy that I took apart last week.

But the opportunity being real doesn't mean that there's room for everyone. You can believe, as I do, that non-Amazon retail media is a serious and generally under-executed business and still do the napkin math and wince. US retail media. US retail media.

And of that 10.5 billion in new spending, 9.4 goes to Amazon and Walmart. That is 90% of the growth in this space shared amongst the two companies that already dominate the space. A database maintained by a software company, Mimby, currently tracks 270 retail media networks worldwide.

And that's before you count the commerce media crowd now spilling out across financial services, payments, travel, mobility, and education. So that's a couple hundred plus networks eyeing a tenth of the year's growth. Some of these networks were always going to be disappointed, not because the opportunity isn't there, but because they were sold a number that never had a chance.

The management consultants arrive, they size the opportunity, they unfurl a hockey stick chart that looks magnificent on a boardroom screen and stay available to course correct when it doesn't pan out. What luck.

Though, the current and former consultants tell me that it's actually often the retailers own leadership that demands that the numbers get pumped because a sober forecast doesn't get a media business funded. Either way, we're left with the same hangover. The canny leaders decline the jobs where they'd be set up to fail. Which brings me to the point of today's episode.

And that is that the IAB, the Interactive Advertising Bureau in the US, has put a name to this reckoning. In April, they released a white paper named Building a More Competitive Commerce Media Ecosystem. And it opens with a line that hits pretty hard.

Over the next 24 to 36 months, networks that don't make explicit strategic choices will be implicitly sorted by the market, often in ways they did not intend. The paper's real argument is that chasing scale is the wrong default for almost everybody and that many networks have quietly assumed that they're in the small club that is going to make it.

Flywheel's 2026 Commerce Trends Report sizes up...

The Retail Media Reckoning: 6 Survival Strategies for Commerce Media Networks Before It’s Too Late

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

The Retail Media Reckoning: 6 Survival Strategies for Commerce Media Networks Before It’s Too Late

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.