NATO’s future remains in doubt as Donald Trump again threatens to pull U.S. troops from Europe. But the practical stakes of these debates aren’t always clear. What military capabilities does Europe stand to lose? How long would it take to replace them? And how might Russia exploit any gap? Sophia Besch, a German expert on European defense policy who has worked inside NATO, joins The World Unpacked to explore U.S. pullout scenarios — up to and including Russian attacks on the Baltics. She and host Jon Bateman dig into Europe&#x27;s historic rearmament, its chance to invent a new way of war, and why peace in Ukraine could unleash new dangers. Find the episode transcript and streaming audio, and get the show direct to your inbox, here: https://carnegieendowment.org/preview/podcasts/the-world-unpacked/how-europe-fights-russia-without-the-us Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: Sophia Besch: https://x.com/SophiaBesch

How Europe Fights Russia Without the U.S.

The World Unpacked

At this week's big NATO summit, Donald Trump threatened yet again to pull troops from Europe. It doesn't have quite the same shock value that it used to, but I'll never forget working inside the Pentagon, the first time Trump nearly blew up NATO. It felt raw, dangerous, surreal, and I never imagined that white-knuckle rollercoaster ride would last another eight years,

with Pete Hegseth now formally reviewing America's troop presence in Europe. Well, we could all keep wondering or worrying about a U.S. pullout, but I want to really understand it. What precise capabilities would Europe lose? How long exactly would it take to replace them? And what specific things might Russia do to exploit the situation?

So I talked to Sasha Prokopenko, a German expert on European defense policy who has worked inside NATO. I had her walk me step-by-step through U.S. pullout scenarios, up to and including Russian attacks on the Baltics. Sophia told me all about Europe's huge ongoing rearmament and Europe's historic opportunity to create its own new way of war, different from America's.

But she also explained that capabilities are just one problem. The deeper issue is how to coordinate dozens of countries without a single powerful leader. And then there's Ukraine. Europe does want peace there, but a ceasefire also would let Russia rearm, triggering a new set of dangers for NATO, or whatever's left of it. I'm Jon K. Bateman, and this is The World Unpacked.

Sasha Prokopenko, welcome to The World Unpacked. Thank you. It's great to be here. I am so excited to talk to a real live European defense expert and a real live European. Yeah. You want me to hem up the accent? The audience eats that stuff up.

How Europe Fights Russia Without the U.S.

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

How Europe Fights Russia Without the U.S.

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.