Crude and natural gas markets have been volatile this week, driven by headlines of ceasefire talks and Saudi Arabian exports. However, most discussions revolved around the possibility of a US export ban on diesel. All told, a 30 day ban may work surprisingly well, at least initially. Then comes Day 31. Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Otar Dgebuadze, European Natural Gas This podcast was recorded on September 25, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5459356-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5457399-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Commodities: Day 31 and beyond

At Any Rate

Hello and welcome to another episode At Any Rate. I'm your host Natasha Kaneva and I had J.P. Morgan Global Research. This week was headline heavy. So oil, for example, ended the week down 2% on signs that talks between the United States and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz were progressing, as well as by headlines of higher than expected Saudi Arabian shipments.

The biggest story in the oil market, however, has been the U.S. where diesel prices have surged past historical highs and distillate inventories at seasonal record lows. As a response to the idea of restricting U.S. diesel exports has resurfaced again. Today we'll be discussing the facts that such a move could have. In another corner of the energy markets, we have European natural gas, which has risen about 80% since June lows compared to about 50% for the crude.

Here the market is focused on Qatar and its ability to restart ONG capacity through the Strait of Hormuz. So far, however, loadings have been minimal and liquidification capacity utilization remains under 20%. To fill in the details, I'm pleased to host Otar De Boadze, who covers European natural gas for J.P. Morgan. Otar, thank you so much for joining us today. Hi Natasha, thank you for having me. So Otar, starting with the natural gas market.

So you're fresh from Bangkok, where you attended the gas tech meetings. You had a lot of meetings with most producers and consumers. So let's focus first on the general TTF price dynamics. Leaving out most Qatar details and just focused on the European inventories and the injection season. So price is right now about 70 euros, yes, of today per megawatt hour.

Global Commodities: Day 31 and beyond

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Global Commodities: Day 31 and beyond

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.