WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here). STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app. DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below. This week we are starting a new series that we’ll do on occasion we are calling a sentiment check as way to talk about hot button issues we are getting questions on. As always, our aim is to provide longer-term perspectives and not hot take reactions. Three topics today: (1) Is Negative AI Sentiment A Risk to Power Demand? (2) Revenge of the Perma Crude Oil Bears? And (3) Is “Big Oil” Price Gouging? 0:00 Introduction 0:42 Negative AI Sentiment A Risk to Power Demand? 14:17 Revenge of the Perma Crude Oil Bears? 28:08 Is “Big Oil” Price Gouging? 32:27 On A Personal Note – World Cup Fans! * Intro &amp; Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato. * This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. ⚖️Disclaimer I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue. Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

EP219: Sentiment Check: AI, Crude Oil, Price Gouging

Super-Spiked Podcast

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Super-Spiked Podcast

## Participants

- **Arjun Murti** (Veriten)

## Transcript

Hi, it's Arjun. This week we are starting a new series we're calling Sentiment Check as a way to talk about some of the hot button issues and questions we're receiving. And as always, we're going to take a longer term perspective. The goal is not to provide hot takes. Three topics today. First, is the negative sentiment, public sentiment around AI, a threat to US power demand growth expectations? Number two, are we seeing revenge of the perma crude oil bearers?

And then number three, is big oil price gouging? Let's get into it. So first topic, first question, is all the negative public sentiment around AI, is that a threat to US power demand? We're being asked this in almost all the meetings we attend and our short answer is no, absolutely not. The question is where would the US economy be without today's AI boom? We're seeing obviously massive jumps in CapEx from the hyperscalers.

And with that is cause is coming a lot of economic activity. The exact math around where GDP would be without AI, you can have some questions, but there's no doubt that it has been a major positive for the US economy, which I'm going to put stands in contrast to a lot of the negative public sentiment that you're seeing out there.

I think as a reminder, the expectation for 2% to 3% structural growth in US power demand, let's just say over the next 5 to 10 years, which is a view we broadly agree with. It is a range of factors that contributed. It's not just AI.

It is that trend of reshoring. It is general economic growth. That's especially true in the rest of the world, but it's true here. When you bring manufacturing back to our country, that is one and the same with having higher power demand. We've got an aging grid that needs investment.

We've obviously got more intermittent resources that require storage and other forms of a base load generation to be added. We've got retiring power plants. There are a number of factors contributing to structural power demand growth. AI is an important component of it.

It's anywhere from a third to 40% of that growth rate, but it is not the only driver of power demand, but we expect the AI trend to continue. I think if the US is in round numbers, 45% of data centers around the world and looking out over 5 to 10 years, we're likely to maintain that share, if not something higher.

AI is here to stay, as are the investments, notwithstanding what is the extreme negative public sentiment we're seeing today. And we've seen prior manias in the past, and this frankly reminds me of that. The current craze around AI, all the headlines, all the negative sentiment, reminds me of two prior episodes of manias, both of which ultimately did not stand the test of time.

The first was Y2K. Not all of you may be old enough to remember that, but this was something that happened in the late 90s. And the fear was that when the year ch...

EP219: Sentiment Check: AI, Crude Oil, Price Gouging

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

EP219: Sentiment Check: AI, Crude Oil, Price Gouging

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.