This week, our Global FX Strategists assess the impact NFP for the dollar in the wake of last week’s FOMC outcome and JPY intervention. We also expand on the carry trade’s resilience despite yen vol, and conclude with the latest news from the Euro bloc of currencies. Speakers: Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 07 August 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5385231-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5391832-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5396957-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5394775-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global FX: Payrolls a setback to USD; still constructive on carry post-JPY intervention

At Any Rate

[SPEAKER_A] Hello and welcome to this week's At Any Rate podcast. My name is Pat Locke on the Global FX Strategy team, joined by my colleagues Antonin Delair, James Nelligan out of London today. Thanks, guys, for joining. Look, so we've just had U.S. payrolls. It wasn't a particularly good number. Dollar's on the back foot. But to just kind of frame that, you know, if you kind of rewind a month or so. You know, there's been a lot of debate, I guess, on our team about, you know, the better contours of US data versus some of the more underwhelming parts. I think I've leaned a little bit more into the underwhelming side. So last month's NFP missed consensus, some negative revisions. Obviously, CPI was very low below expectations, PCE the same. And now you've had another seminal NFP print coming in pretty markedly weak. Again, we recognize that there has been some decent data in between. You know, I know James and I have been talking about the ISM manufacturing data and claims certainly stand out. But, you know, from our perspective, I think today's NFP is kind of a fairly material setback to the tactical dollar upside view. I mean, just kind of like breaking down what we actually saw. Obviously, the headline contracted. You can peg a decent amount of that on government. So looking through that noise a little bit. Private payrolls, $30K, you know, ostensibly not, not bad. Also not great. And I still think generally kind of like below expectations.

Global FX: Payrolls a setback to USD; still constructive on carry post-JPY intervention

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The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Global FX: Payrolls a setback to USD; still constructive on carry post-JPY intervention

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.