Welcome to this week’s episode of Optimal Insights. In this episode, Jim Glennon and James Cahill deliver the market update, covering the latest jobs report, inflation trends, rate volatility, and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The episode then transitions to Mike Vough and Brennan O’Connell for a Market Advantage preview, examining May data across origination volume, mortgage rates, product mix, secondary market execution, MSR values, and investor activity. The team shares their expert opinions and insights into how these factors are shaping the industry and the broader economic landscape. Subscribe to Market Advantage: https://www2.optimalblue.com/market-advantage/ Key Points Stronger-than-expected jobs data and its impact on rates and Fed expectations Inflation trends, upcoming CPI and PPI reports, and market volatility May Market Advantage trends across origination and secondary markets Chapters 00:01 – Welcome and episode overview 02:40 – Market update: jobs report and rate reaction 09:55 – Inflation outlook and Fed policy expectations 16:42 – Market Advantage preview: May origination and rate trends 20:52 – Secondary market insights, MSR values, and investor activity 26:08 – Closing remarks Optimal Insights Team: Jim Glennon, SVP, Hedging and Trading Operations James Cahill, MSF/MSR Account Manager Mike Vough, SVP, Corporate Strategy Brennan O’Connell, Director of Data Solutions Production Team: Executive Producer: Sara Holtz Producers: Matt Gilhooly &amp; Alex Kreuter Commentary included in the podcast shall not be construed as, nor is Optimal Blue providing, any legal, trading, hedging, or financial advice.

Fed Expectations, Inflation Focus & May Market Advantage | Optimal Insights | June 9, 2026

Optimal Insights - Mortgage Data & Capital Markets Insights

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Optimal Insights - Mortgage Data &amp; Capital Markets Insights

## Participants

- **Jim Glennon** (Optimal Blue)
- **James Cahill** (Optimal Blue)
- **Mike Vough** (Optimal Blue)
- **Brennan O’Connell** (Optimal Blue)

## Transcript

Welcome to Optimal Insights. I'm your host, Jim Glennon, Senior Vice President of Hedging and Trading Operations at Optimal Blue. Our clients and industry partners have long relied on Optimal Blue for trusted insights and commentary, and these podcasts are an evolution of our commitment to keeping the industry informed. Let's dive into today's episode. Welcome to Optimal Insights, your weekly source for real-time rate data and expert capital markets commentary, brought to you by Optimal Blue. Let's dive in and help you maximize your profitability this week.

Welcome, everybody. Thanks for being here. We have a great show for you today. We're here to help you focus on what's important, whether you're an originator, a capital markets person, or just someone who's interested in the mortgage industry and some great market commentary. James and I will have a market update here in a second. We'll talk about what's been going on with the jobs report and a couple other things that happened over the weekend.

And then Mike and Brennan will join for a preview of the market advantage report. So look forward to that every single month. They'll be on here in a few minutes to talk through that. So stay tuned.

Before we get into that, in the way of data, the OBMMI, the conventional 30-year, over 6.5%. Again, we got routed pretty well on Friday. As you all likely know, stocks and bonds just got hammered on the heels of the jobs report, which we'll talk about here in a sec.

10-year, 4.56 right about this moment. Potentially going to hit another record here if that keeps spiking. We hit 4.6 like a week or two ago, and that was the highest we'd seen in like 15 years. So approaching that level again. So let's get right into the market update. James, welcome. James Cahill, how you doing? Let's see bad, Jim. Another Monday rolls back around, right? And they keep coming.

That's right. And this time I missed, I was not in the office on Friday. I did sort of casually watch the jobs report from afar, but it looks like sort of par for the course, it feels like. I'm a little surprised that we took as bad of a beating as we did, even with some of the reading I've done this morning. But we saw, what did we see? 172,000 jobs. We expected something a little cooler, like 80,000.

As we've talked about before, 90,000 job miss is not enormous in an economy of 180 million or so workers. So what do we make of this? And it seems the market's making of it that we're going to see a rate hike this year, almost for sure at this point, right? Yeah. I mean, 172, right? It's not an absolute gangbuster number. But when you were looking at the expectation of 80K, it's more than double.

So that's a great number compared to wha...

Fed Expectations, Inflation Focus & May Market Advantage | Optimal Insights | June 9, 2026

Transcript

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Fed Expectations, Inflation Focus & May Market Advantage | Optimal Insights | June 9, 2026

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.