The uncertain oil outlook remains a key theme, while markets await the US CPI report for fresh Fed clues. In the US, we share our forecasts for the coming CPI and retail sales releases and our Fed outlook. In Europe, we preview the central bank meeting in Norway, August sentiment data and discuss the heatwave. In Japan, we examine the BOJ outlook, with fresh minutes to be released and following recent FX intervention to support the yen. Across Asia, we preview key data ahead and the RBA policy meeting in Australia. Chapters: US: 02:24, Europe: 07:23, Japan: 11:13, Rest of Asia: 16:31.

The Week Ahead - Up and Down

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Global stocks set a new record with AI and renewed hopes of a Middle East deal lifting optimism. And the US and Iran are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Now, President Trump says Iran talks are going well and the waterway will open very soon. Hello and welcome to The Week Ahead on Nomura Podcasts. I'm your host, Andrew Teisost from our Global Markets Research Team.

And today is Friday, the 7th of August. Well, it's been an up and down kind of week with market sentiment swinging around AI and oil related developments. There was optimism early on with President Trump again saying a deal with Iran was close. And you heard a snippet there on that from Francine Lacqua from Bloomberg. Markets once again seem to buy that story with oil and US bond yields moving lower and with the S&P rebounding to a fresh record high.

But as the week progressed, that sentiment has soured somewhat following reports of Houthi attacks, Iran striking targets in the Strait and with negotiations over the Strait apparently involving Iran and Oman, but not the US. It's hard to imagine the US side being happy with that. Now, this volatility could continue, noting that we have had to put this podcast to bed a little early this week ahead of the US payrolls report. And that one's always capable of delivering a surprise, of course.

But this week I'll be checking in with some of Nomura's global research team. I'll be chatting with Aichi Ememiya in New York to get his take on the coming US CPI and retail sales releases. He'll also be discussing our base case on the Fed and risks around that view.

The Week Ahead - Up and Down

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

The Week Ahead - Up and Down

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.