Today - how the market is parsing the titanic capex plans for the four Mag7 companies reporting after the US market close yesterday. With crude oil prices spiking aggressively, maintaining the AI exceptionalism trade will prove difficult unless prices back down. Also, a far more interesting FOMC meeting than was expected as Powell vows to stay on and put up a fight for Fed independence, a fight that is doomed to fail. Elsewhere, Japan fights against JPY sell-off while recording today&#x27;s pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Capex bombast versus spiking energy prices creating unbearable tension. Also, the JPY!

Saxo Market Call

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Saxo Market Call

## Participants

- **John J. Hardy** (SaxoStrats)

## Transcript

Welcome to the Saxo Market Call. Before we get started, it's important we emphasize that the views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All information provided is for educational and entertainment purposes only.

Hey everyone, it is Thursday, April 30th, 2026, the day after a very significant set of earnings reports that still has the market excited and trying to stay distracted with this what really appears to be an AI exceptionalism trade writ large. Trying to stay distracted from, of course, this latest big spike in crude oil prices.

Iran remains defiant. Trump is rejecting the attempts to do any kind of deal that doesn't involve the Iranian nuclear program being profoundly wound down. It's almost unimaginable to think what the reality on the ground looks like in Iran in terms of the collapsing economy. And I'm hoping this doesn't turn into some kind of humanitarian catastrophe as well.

I think, to some degree, what might ironically be emboldening Trump is the stock market itself. So, of course, he doesn't like the metric of U.S. gasoline prices or petrol prices being where they are. But the key metric for him would be the stock market in other ways. And this kind of emboldens his stance, I would believe, to some degree at least. So, if you're looking for a taco, it's hard to find a taco when markets are at these elevated levels.

Yes, we had some slight caution in pockets of the market. The broader market was very slightly down. But you see that NASDAQ 100 up 0.6%. And you see some of the reactions after the hours on these huge CapEx plans and still some strong results from the titans of market cap. And it's hard to get this market down. But I do believe we are getting close to some kind of breaking point.

I wrote a couple of podcasts ago about the idea that it's, you know, the cognitive dissonance is difficult to see the market as elevated as it is with these energy prices ratcheting higher and higher every day, which indicates or not indicates, but drives the risk of significant economic weakness going forward. You see it being absorbed in something like the European indices. They're down 4.5% from their recent high.

And that recent high was failed to, at least in the stocks 600, failed to approach the prior cycle high that was before the Iran war broke out. But we're reaching some kind of breaking point where, you know, another day or two of $120 plus, if that's where we get to on the, at least the July rent. So it's rolling now that June contract is rolling off at these $120 plus prices, which kind of indicate where the spot cargos are trading.

But that's very thinly traded in the futures. The big future is the July future, which has now been as high as 114. It's backed off a bit as I'm speaking here to 112. And then we have...

Capex bombast versus spiking energy prices creating unbearable tension. Also, the JPY!

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

Capex bombast versus spiking energy prices creating unbearable tension. Also, the JPY!

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.