Monday 29th June 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Nobody can accuse markets of being overly cynical about peace negotiations, says NAB’s Ken Crompton on this morning’s podcast. Oil fell on Friday despite skirmishes between Iran and Iran as Tehran seeks to reassert its control over the Strait. Most data on Friday were second tier stuff, with the surprise in the size of the US goods trade deficit the most surprising. Fed speakers over the weekend were sounding hawkish, and there will be a lot of interest in what Kevin Warsh says in Sintra this week. Yes, as Phil describes it, it’s the glitz and the glamour of the ECB Central Bankers Forum in Portugal, which is likely to provide a drip feed of news this week, alongside US jobs data, culminating in non-farm payrolls on Thursday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Skirmishes, Sintra and US Jobs Week

NAB Morning Call

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** NAB Morning Call

## Participants

- **Phil Dobbie** (NAB)
- **Ken Crompton** (NAB)
- **Ken Crompton** (NAB)

## Transcript

Can oil stay close to 70 given the ceasefires not exactly holding steady in the Gulf? President Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Europe. We have the glamour of the Central Bankers Forum in Sintra this week and Jobs Week for the United States as well. It's Monday, it's the 29th of June, 2026. It's the Morning Call from NAB. Good morning. Well, ignore the skirmishes in the Gulf, it seems. Oil was down 4.3% for Brent on Friday, down below 72 in Powell.

In fact, it got down to 71.38, another quarter percent falling in the Nasdaq on Friday as well, but not much loss for the S&P. But the Eurostoxx 50 lost three quarters of 1%. The DAX was down 1.3%. The CSI 300 in China was down 3%. The Nikkei in Japan lost 4%. And the ASX 200 here at home managed to climb, but only 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell a couple of basis points. Not much going on in Europe except a three basis point rise in ten-year gilt yields in the UK.

Aussie 10-year futures at 4.78% now. And small currency moves on Friday. The Aussie dollar down 0.2% to just under 69 US cents. And here's NAB's Ken Crompton for this Monday morning. So, despite the falling oil price, I mean, we know tensions remain. Iran has been saying that they are in control of the Strait of Hormuz. They reckon it was part of the ceasefire agreement. And they say there's going to be more tax if people don't follow their rules. And reports that tankers have been turning around.

I think the number of ships passing through the Strait over the weekend, yesterday in particular, has slowed. So, it would be a brave assumption to assume that oil is going to hold its position shortly. Although, you know, perhaps we're just used to it now. Yeah, good morning, Phil. I think one cannot accuse markets of being, you know, sort of overly cynical about peace negotiations, can they?

So, I mean, even during the day on Friday, as oil did slump a little bit again back to end the week, I think down about 10% for crude across the week. In the end, you know, we were seeing reports then of the initial US, the forceful response or whatever the term was that President Trump was using to those attacks on the Singaporean tanker on Thursday. And there's been sort of skirmishes that have continued over the course of the weekend.

You know, the US has reported that they've attacked sort of various missile sites and radar installations across the coast of the Strait or across the Iranian coast. And the Iranians have reported they've struck US naval installations across other parts of the Middle East. So, you'd be right to read into that. You have to assume that some of that optimism in the oil markets is going to be tempered a little bit today.

But still, you know, given where we are in general and we've traded back down, as I said, you know, towards the low $70, that there's still been a ...

Skirmishes, Sintra and US Jobs Week

Transcript

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Skirmishes, Sintra and US Jobs Week

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.