Monday 29th June 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Nobody can accuse markets of being overly cynical about peace negotiations, says NAB’s Ken Crompton on this morning’s podcast. Oil fell on Friday despite skirmishes between Iran and Iran as Tehran seeks to reassert its control over the Strait. Most data on Friday were second tier stuff, with the surprise in the size of the US goods trade deficit the most surprising. Fed speakers over the weekend were sounding hawkish, and there will be a lot of interest in what Kevin Warsh says in Sintra this week. Yes, as Phil describes it, it’s the glitz and the glamour of the ECB Central Bankers Forum in Portugal, which is likely to provide a drip feed of news this week, alongside US jobs data, culminating in non-farm payrolls on Thursday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Skirmishes, Sintra and US Jobs Week

NAB Morning Call

Can oil stay close to 70 given the ceasefires not exactly holding steady in the Gulf? President Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Europe. We have the glamour of the Central Bankers Forum in Sintra this week and Jobs Week for the United States as well. It's Monday, it's the 29th of June, 2026. It's the Morning Call from NAB. Good morning. Well, ignore the skirmishes in the Gulf, it seems. Oil was down 4.3% for Brent on Friday, down below 72 in Powell.

In fact, it got down to 71.38, another quarter percent falling in the Nasdaq on Friday as well, but not much loss for the S&P. But the Eurostoxx 50 lost three quarters of 1%. The DAX was down 1.3%. The CSI 300 in China was down 3%. The Nikkei in Japan lost 4%. And the ASX 200 here at home managed to climb, but only 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell a couple of basis points. Not much going on in Europe except a three basis point rise in ten-year gilt yields in the UK.

Aussie 10-year futures at 4.78% now. And small currency moves on Friday. The Aussie dollar down 0.2% to just under 69 US cents. And here's NAB's Ken Crompton for this Monday morning. So, despite the falling oil price, I mean, we know tensions remain. Iran has been saying that they are in control of the Strait of Hormuz. They reckon it was part of the ceasefire agreement. And they say there's going to be more tax if people don't follow their rules. And reports that tankers have been turning around.

Skirmishes, Sintra and US Jobs Week

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Skirmishes, Sintra and US Jobs Week

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.