We know when Walmart or Dollar General are doing well, those are not good signs for the health of the consumer economy, particularly when it’s higher income shoppers suddenly appearing in bigger numbers. But when that hard hit traffic starts spilling over to the local pawn shops, it’s a whole other level. Canaries and coalmines. Here’s the thing. We’re not only seeing that happen, the data backs this up, including a whole bunch which released earlier today. Eurodollar University&#x27;s Money &amp; Macro Analysis ----------------------------------------------- What is a Eurodollar University membership? It’s where understanding the monetary world isn’t a mystery—it&#x27;s a method. If you’re serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you’re in the right place. Ready to explore? Master monetary systems – past and future - with structure, clarity, and confidence. Visit https://eurodollar.university/membership ------------------------------------------------- Pawn shop economy https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/pawn-shops-are-seeing-something-the-stock-market-isn-t-and-it-has-economists-concerned/vi-AA21Rt7f Powell Press Conference Transcript and Video https://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htm https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Pawn Shops Just Issued a Very Grim Warning About Consumer Behavior

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Now we know when Walmart and Dollar General really start doing well, that's not a good sign for consumers or the overall economy, particularly when it's higher income shoppers that are coming flooding into those stores. But when that traffic starts to spill over to local pawn shop, that's a whole other level. We're talking about canaries and coal mines here. But here's the thing. We're not only seeing that happen, the data, including a whole bunch that we got today, is backing it up.

More negative real incomes and a plunging savings rate that has suburban women using their jewelry as collateral for short-term pawn shop loans. It really is the Walmart signal only one step further into distress. Trading down to discount stores is one thing, but having to hawk personal items to be able to pay for groceries and gasoline is not what you want to see for the overall economy.

The latest figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis explain perfectly why this is happening more and more. Price adjusted private incomes, which is the best proxy for the working economy, they declined once again in March, which was the second straight contraction, the third in four months, and the fourth time over the last half year.

It was enough to turn the six-month change there negative by the most in years, a rare signal of distress, which proves consumers are falling further and further behind as the lack of income once again clashes with rising expenses, just starting with gasoline. And because Americans were paying more for gas and not getting paid enough to absorb that hit, the savings rate plunged to 3.6%, which is the lowest in three and a half years.

Pawn Shops Just Issued a Very Grim Warning About Consumer Behavior

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Pawn Shops Just Issued a Very Grim Warning About Consumer Behavior

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.