In this week&#x27;s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we take a mid-year pulse check on the commercial real estate market and revisit some of Trepp&#x27;s biggest predictions for 2026. We explore why CMBS issuance continues to exceed expectations, what persistently stable delinquency rates tell us about today&#x27;s credit environment, and whether the market is finally shifting from an &quot;extend and pretend&quot; mindset to a more definitive &quot;resolve and recognize&quot; approach. We also break down several of the week&#x27;s most notable headlines, including the structural and economic hurdles highlighted by a stalled Manhattan office-to-residential conversion, the Texas Stock Exchange&#x27;s latest milestone on its path to launch, and what recent multifamily developments reveal about today&#x27;s investment landscape and capital flows. Finally, we dive into Trepp&#x27;s latest research on the Midwest-versus-Sunbelt debate, examining why investors may need to look beyond familiar market narratives and focus instead on the underlying fundamentals. Tune in now. Episode notes: Economic Update (0:29) Office-to-resi Conversion in NYC (8:35) Texas Stock Exchange Launch Plans (15:37) Mid-year Check In: CMBS Issuance Growth Trends (18:44) S2 Capital Fund Collapse (42:22) AvalonBay Communities’ Acquisition of a Full City-Block in Miami (50:20) Trepp Report: Midwest Multifamily Market Analysis (52:00) Programming Notes &amp; Shoutouts (56:59) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

406. Challenging CRE Narratives: Mid-Year Reality Check, Office Conversion Risks & Multifamily Mixed Signals

The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

Welcome to the TreppWire Podcast, the show where commercial real estate meets data and insights. This is our week in review for the week ending July 10th, 2026. I'm Haley Keen with Trepp, a data modeling and analytics firm for the CMBS, commercial real estate and CLO markets. I'm with Lonnie Hendry, Chief Product Officer, and Stephen Bushbaum, Head of Applied Research and Analytics. Coming back from the 4th of July, markets still had plenty to digest. Services activity remained,

expansionary but mixed. The trade deficit widened sharply. Inflation expectations ticked higher. And investors are watching the first FOMC minutes from Kevin Warsh's Fed for clues on how this new regime communicates without traditional forward guidance. On the commercial real estate side, today we're doing a mid-year check-in on our 2026 predictions. Issuance has stayed strong. Single-asset single borrower continues to drive private labor

volume. Five-year debt structures remain dominant. And CMBS delinquency has been fairly range-bound even as stress stays concentrated in specific sectors and markets. Today we'll also cover several stories that highlight where the market is headed. A Manhattan office to resi conversion that underscores the engineering challenges behind adaptive reuse.

The Texas stock exchange taking another step toward launch. And a few multifamily stories that show both sides of the cycle. Distress at a fund, but also Avalon Bay positioning for the next South Florida upswing.

Then in digging through the data, we'll unpack Lonnie's new Midwest versus Sunbelt multifamily piece. And for this week's one-on-one segment, Stephen will break down back leverage. How it boosts returns, why banks like it, and why it can also amplify downside risk. So Stephen, let's start with the macro setup, get into some of the main stories of the week, and then on to our mid-year predictions check-in.

406. Challenging CRE Narratives: Mid-Year Reality Check, Office Conversion Risks & Multifamily Mixed Signals

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

406. Challenging CRE Narratives: Mid-Year Reality Check, Office Conversion Risks & Multifamily Mixed Signals

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.